In the days and weeks after the visit by the highest-ranking US official to travel to Taiwan in a quarter century, the People’s Republic of China sent warships and military aircraft to all sides of the self-governing island. It fired missiles into nearby waters, repeatedly violated Taiwan’s air defence zone and suspended or cancelled eight official military dialogues and channels with Washington.
“That’s not the way that countries that want to be leaders within the world should behave,” said Vice-Admiral Karl Thomas, Commander of the US 7th Fleet, based in Japan.
China has claimed it seeks a peaceful resolution to the cross-strait differences, he added. “But when you see them fire ballistic missiles over Taiwan and have them land in the maritime commons and into shipping lines, and some of them actually landed in the Japanese economic exclusion zone, that’s why I attach that word irresponsible.”
Thomas, who started his career landing naval aircraft on pitching decks before going on to command two aircraft carriers, said he hoped Beijing – and Taiwan – drew meaningful lessons from Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
For Taiwan, these include the importance of strong, charismatic leadership as shown by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, of asymmetric weapons and tactics when fighting a much larger military, and the value of a people’s will to fight.
Taiwan has increasingly come under criticism in Washington and at home for using funds to acquire tanks and other prestigious, big-ticket defence hardware rather than smaller mobile weapons that might prove more helpful in a Chinese assault.
For China, led by President Xi Jinping, the lessons include recognising how quickly the global community can respond to an invasion of a neighbour’s territory and how easy it is to underestimate military difficulties – as Russian President Vladimir Putin has found amid domestic political opposition and embarrassing setbacks in Ukraine.
“With all that we know now, eight months later, if he had that decision to make all over again, I doubt that President Putin would make that decision,” Thomas said. “I would hope that Chairman Xi’s looking at that and maybe taking some lessons as well.”
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province to be reunited by force if necessary. Few countries, including the United States, recognise the island as an independent state. But Washington is committed by law to support Taiwan’s military defence capability – a stance Beijing strongly opposes.
The United States 7th Fleet that Thomas commands, based out of Yokosuka, Japan and answering to the commander of the Pacific Fleet based in Hawaii, includes some 60 ships and submarines, 140 aircraft and about 20,000 sailors at any given time.
China has the world’s largest navy with some 350 vessels, compared to around 290 for the United States. But most military analysts say the quality and capability of the US Navy is vastly better and China’s numbers include many relatively small ships.
Speaking at the US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland, Thomas said there were clearly some significant differences between the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan, although, if anything, an invasion across the Taiwan Strait would be far more difficult.
There are no foxholes to hide in when battling across 80 miles (130km) of water, he noted, and it was hardly a coincidence that there had not been a noteworthy amphibious assault attempted in years given the countering force of precision weapons.
The admiral, a graduate of nuclear power school, said the US military was concerned with North Korea’s recent spate of missile launches and the “tantrum or whatever you want to call it” by its leader, Kim Jong-un.
But China is far and away America’s biggest concern, he added, as clearly outlined in the US government’s national defence strategy released earlier this year and the Biden administration’s national security strategy issued on Wednesday.
The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing’s response to Pelosi’s visit was justified. “All the countermeasures taken by the Chinese government are within China’s legitimate and lawful rights to safeguard sovereignty, territorial integrity and security,” said embassy Spokesman Liu Pengyu, adding that the US should “stop being a trouble maker for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”.
The challenge of countering China with its rapidly expanding global ambitions could not be underestimated, Thomas said, adding that an apt response was to push back both militarily and diplomatically in a unified front with allies and partners.
Specifically, this could entail additional joint military training exercises, shared freedom of navigation patrols and information sharing with Japan, Australia, Britain and others.
“We’re operating as one team because it’s going to take the entire free world coming together to enforce the rules-based international order,” Thomas said, adding there was “a lot at stake”.
A key challenge the US and its allies have faced in countering China is tied to its so-called grey-zone activities – the use of ostensibly civilian obstacles to frustrate foreign militaries.
Thomas said an authoritarian state like China was making greater use of commercial fishing fleets to block, distract or harass US military vessels, noting the tactic was usually employed closer to land rather than in deeper water areas.
One US response has been to increase patrols by the US Coast Guard in cooperation with the coastguards of Japan, the Philippines and others, he said.
In the past, the US has mounted freedom of navigation operations, or Fonops, through the Taiwan Strait on a nearly monthly basis, but this year has reportedly done fewer of them than in 2021 or 2020.
In the most recent case, on September 20, the destroyer USS Higgins passed through the strait accompanied by the Royal Canadian Navy Halifax-class frigate HMCS Vancouver.
Thomas said Fonops were designed to be irregular and unpredictable. They are also being supported more often by allies, as seen with Canada’s recent participation.
At the same time, the US military and allies work hard to avoid “unplanned encounters” with other nations’ military hardware or announce on open channels when other signalling is not acknowledged by Chinese vessels, he added, noting a level of transparency generally lacking with the People’s Liberation Army.
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