The United States’ latest action to blacklist four Chinese companies for seeking to acquire AI chips for China’s military has brought a spotlight on China’s overambitious technological drive. Amidst global concern over Beijing’s military modernization efforts, especially in Artificial Intelligence (AI), the move underscores the strategic importance of AI tools in shaping future warfare.
The companies blacklisted by the US are LINKZOL (Beijing) Technology Co; Xi’an Like Innovative Informa Information Technology Co; Beijing Anwise Technology Co, and SITONHOLY (Tianjin).
China sees AI playing a central role in advancing its military power. Chinese Communist Party (CCP) General Secretary Xi Jinping has set ambitious goals for the PLA to “complete” its modernization by 2035 and transform into a “world-class” military by the middle of the century. In March 2023, Xi had called on the PLA to “raise the presence of combat forces in new domains and of new qualities.”
As part of those goals, Xi wants the PLA to continue to move through stages of military-technological development, from mechanization to ‘informatization’ and ultimately ‘intelligentization’ which refers to integrating artificial intelligence, quantum computing, big data, and other emerging technologies into the joint force. In 2020, China set a new goal to “accelerate the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization” by 2027. In fact, Beijing aims to make progress on all three stages simultaneously rather than sequentially.
To compete in this emerging era of conflict, the PLA is developing an overarching concept it calls “Multi-domain Precision Warfare.” Thus, it means that China can attack the weak points linking U.S. systems and domains together and thereby neutralize or overwhelm U.S. advantages, rather than destroy U.S. enemy forces directly—ship-to-ship or tank-to-tank. Those weak points can include internet, satellite, or electromagnetic communications links as well as logistical supply systems.
It may be recalled that in his speech to the CCP’s 20th National Congress in October 2022, Xi called on China to “speed up the development of unmanned, smart combat capabilities.” In addition, China’s program of Military-Civil Fusion—although its scope remains ambiguous in practice—seeks to appropriate select private technological advancements, including some developed in cooperation with international research partners, to augment the PLA’s capabilities.
China takes an expansive view of military AI’s potential and is engaged in extensive research, development, and experimentation. Researchers at the Centre for Security and Emerging Technology analyzed 343 PLA equipment contracts and found seven areas of interest for current AI investments: intelligent and autonomous vehicles; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; predictive maintenance and logistics; information and electronic warfare; simulation and training; command and control; and automated target recognition. Those categories are illustrative but not necessarily exhaustive. Two areas of special focus are AI in the PLA’s weapons systems and AI in the PLA’s battlefield functions and support.
While China has ambitious plans for infusing military AI throughout the PLA, the technology’s ultimate trajectory is not currently clear. Analysts view that China provides little transparency on its military modernization efforts, including for AI, which could someday lead to strategic surprise for the United States if Beijing manages to make breakthroughs in secret.
The DoD’s annual report ( October 2023) to Congress highlighted the central role of AI in China’s military strategy, capabilities, and modernization efforts. This heightened focus on AI reflected Beijing’s ambition to enhance its military capabilities and project power globally, posing new challenges and uncertainties for US national security interests.
One of the key concepts outlined in the DoD report was China’s “Multi-Domain Precision Warfare” (MDPW), which leverages AI and big data advances to identify vulnerabilities in the US operational system and launch precision strikes on those weaknesses. This operational concept underscores China’s intent to develop AI-driven capabilities that can challenge US military superiority and assert dominance in regional conflicts.
Moreover, China has designated AI as a priority area for scientific and technological development, aiming to surpass Western rivals in AI research and development by 2025 and become the world’s AI leader by 2030. This ambitious agenda underscored Beijing’s determination to harness AI technologies for military applications and gain a strategic advantage in future conflicts.
12. Military theorists and analysts have begun speculating on the implications of China’s embrace of AI-driven warfare. Intelligent warfare, characterized by the extensive application of AI across all military domains, is expected to reshape the nature of modern warfare. Hybrid man-machine command and control systems, autonomous weapons systems, and advanced sensor networks will play a pivotal role in future conflicts, expanding the battlefield into new domains such as outer space and cyberspace.
However, alongside the potential benefits of AI in military operations, there are also significant risks and vulnerabilities associated with its deployment. Concerns about data vulnerability, physical vulnerability, inflexibility, and ethical issues surrounding target discrimination and accountability have prompted calls for greater scrutiny and regulation of AI technologies in warfare.
In response to China’s military modernization efforts, the United States has unveiled its own strategy for integrating AI into military operations. The Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) strategy aims to consolidate information from all branches of the US Armed Forces into a single platform, leveraging automation, AI, and predictive analytics to enhance decision-making and situational awareness on the battlefield.
Chinese deep investment in the AI technology can also stimulate a new competition. Owing to Beijing’s opposition of democratic values and the authoritarian regime of CPC, Chinese use of AI in its military not only threatens the nearby countries but also threatens the peace and stability of the whole world.
As China accelerates its efforts to harness AI for military purposes, the United States and its allies must remain vigilant and adapt to the evolving strategic landscape. Effectively managing the risks and opportunities associated with AI-driven warfare will be essential for containing Chinese aggression and maintaining peace and stability in the 21st century.
Author
