The CCP has been carrying out sweeping internal purges at the beginning and end of the year, while hiding its economic weaknesses and silencing negative opinions. The CCP’s unsuccessful meddling in Taiwan’s recent election has exposed the regime and Xi Jinping’s leadership problems amid internal and external challenges. Xi Jinping’s bad governance and oppressive rule are unintentionally creating enemies within Zhongnanhai, the CCP’s headquarters.
Xi Jinping removed important figures he had promoted before, such as foreign minister Qin Gang and defence minister Li Shangfu, as well as many military leaders and defence industry heads. There are recent speculations about a plot against Xi led by Lu Yuan and other influential second-generation Red Elites, the offspring of revolutionary heroes. Sun Guoxiang, a full-time associate professor at the University of Nanhua in Taiwan, claims that since Xi came to power, he has wiped out his political opponents through anti-corruption campaigns, leaving no major contenders. However, Xi’s governance shortcomings and authoritarian manner are paradoxically creating possible future foes. He said that there could be a new turmoil brewing and once it escalates, it could spark a crisis within Zhongnanhai.
At the CCP’s 20th National Congress in 2022, Xi’s supporters took over completely, strengthening his dictatorship. However, the government keeps emphasizing the need for centralized and unified leadership and punishing officials who lack initiative or adopt a “lying flat” attitude. Sun points out that this “lying flat” situation began in Xi’s second term. Xi’s confidence and desire for control made many surrender all power to him, encouraging a widespread passive behaviour among officials. This could eventually weaken the regime’s governance ability and raise new questions about the validity of Xi’s rule. Sun also notes that Xi disrupted the CCP’s succession system, causing serious worries about future governance in mainland China. Given the regime’s failure to implement systemic reforms and unresolved economic problems, the international community should prepare for the CCP’s downfall and major changes in mainland China.
The main question is: Will Xi Jinping start a war with Taiwan due to internal conflicts? Many people think that Xi Jinping may provoke a war in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea when he faces domestic troubles and deep divisions. However, Sun Guoxiang estimates that this scenario has only a 1 percent chance. He recognizes the CCP’s tendency for risk, but he also notes their need to counter the U.S.’s Indo-Pacific strategy, implying that they are not likely to start an irrational war soon. Su Ziyun, director of the Institute of Strategy and Resources at Taiwan’s Institute of National Defence and Security, says that the CCP has used external wars to deal with internal crises in the past. For example, the Korean War in 1950 after the CCP took over mainland China, the Zhenbao Island conflict with the Soviet Union during the early Cultural Revolution, and the Vietnam War in 1979 after Deng Xiaoping defeated the Gang of Four. These were land wars where the CCP used mass infantry tactics. But the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, or South China Sea wars depend on naval and air warfare and technology, which give the CCP a disadvantage. Lin Yingyou, assistant professor at the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University in Taiwan, also doubts that the CCP will use military force in the Taiwan Strait. He guesses that the CCP may wait for the result of the U.S. presidential election in 2024. 5. Therefore, the CCP faces a complicated and uncertain situation both inside and outside, and its actions will have a big impact on the region and the world’s stability and security. The CCP’s internal purges and external threats show its weakness and fear, not its strength and confidence. The international community should support Taiwan’s democracy and sovereignty, and stop the CCP from any dangerous or forceful actions. The CCP’s internal and external problems are connected and make each other worse, creating a cycle of oppression and aggression. The international community should try to talk and work with the CCP, while also respecting human rights and the rule of law.
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