U.S. intelligence, as reported by Bloomberg on January 7, reveals that certain Chinese missiles contain water instead of rocket fuel, and numerous nuclear-capable silo doors in China are non-functional. Anonymous U.S. officials suggest that these discoveries prompted Xi Jinping’s recent purges of military personnel and could hinder his plans for a military takeover of Taiwan.
According to Bloomberg’s sources, corruption within China’s Rocket Force and defense industrial base is extensive, leading U.S. officials to believe that Xi is now less likely to pursue major military actions in the near future. The assessments highlight examples of the impact of corruption, including missiles filled with water rather than fuel and malfunctioning silo lids in western China, impairing effective missile launches.
These insights, obtained from sources familiar with U.S. assessments, indicate that corruption within the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undermined confidence in its overall capabilities, particularly within the Rocket Force. Additionally, corruption has reportedly impeded some of Xi’s key modernization initiatives.
While the majority of corruption is said to be concentrated within the PLA Rocket Force, the recent purges have a broader scope, reaching naval and air force leaders. Over the last six months, more than a dozen military officials have been dismissed. The Wall Street Journal reports, “Among those ousted are two generals with previous command of China’s strategic-missile force, a former chief of the air force, and an admiral who led naval forces in the South China Sea—a geopolitical hotspot where China is increasingly in conflict with the U.S. and other nations.”
It is improbable that the dysfunction of China’s nuclear missiles is a result of Chinese disinformation. The credibility of China’s nuclear arsenal hinges on the perception of functionality for both deterrence and compellence, making it unlikely that such information would be deliberately manipulated by the Chinese authorities. However, this doesn’t rule out the possibility of the information being disinformation originating from another nation.
If proven true, the extent of corruption within China’s military would significantly impact our understanding of the viability of China’s military capabilities. Historical indicators suggest that increased involvement of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) correlates with decreased efficiency in economic, diplomatic, and military decision-making, a pattern observed in many communist countries.
The revelation of widespread and debilitating corruption in China’s military could potentially ease pressure on the U.S. military, allowing for a reallocation of resources to address ongoing conflicts with Russia and Iran. While there is a desire to believe that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may be weaker than perceived, caution is warranted given the potential implications of such revelations, both domestically and internationally, and the possible impact on Xi’s reputation.
Despite the challenges, it is essential not to underestimate the capabilities of PLA forces. In 2023, the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) conducted over 1,700 flights, intimidating Taiwan with various aircraft, including fighters and bombers, and frequent incursions over previously inviolate airspace. The PLAAF’s actions, influencing Taiwan’s electorate, demonstrate the military’s strategic influence.
Recent developments, such as the PLA Navy’s (PLAN) upgraded naval exercises in the South China Sea on January 5, further highlight the PLA’s assertiveness. The PLAN’s eavesdropping on joint exercises conducted by the U.S. and the Philippines in the latter’s exclusive economic zone reveals a proactive approach. The PLAN, now the world’s largest navy by the number of ships, has leveraged economic resources to build a formidable naval force, including a world-class coast guard, maritime militia, and artificial islands in the South China Sea, presenting a multifaceted threat to other navies, coast guards, undersea energy development, and artisanal fishing. Despite potential internal challenges, the PLA continues to assert its dominance through strategic and assertive actions.
The PLAN consistently engages in provocative actions, harassing the U.S. Navy by closely shadowing its ships and reconnaissance planes. This behavior is particularly evident in the South China Sea, where Vietnam and the Philippines have experienced military-grade lasers, water cannons, and ramming incidents that resulted in the sinking of fishing boats.
Crucial questions arise regarding the true extent of corruption-induced dysfunction within the PLA, its duration, and the extent to which it has compromised military readiness. Can the U.S. military rely on intelligence, especially in the wake of the dismissal of over a dozen military leaders across various services, to confidently assert that China’s military not only lacks the capability to take Taiwan in the near future but is also aware of this limitation? The latter aspect is of paramount importance, as even a militarily weak dictator could instigate a devastating war if unaware of their vulnerabilities, as seen in the case of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. In dealing with dictators like Xi, it is imperative to adhere to well-established principles: anticipate the unexpected, stand firm, and maintain constant vigilance. These guidelines are crucial, recognizing that leaders with authoritarian tendencies can pose unforeseen challenges, requiring a proactive and cautious approach from other nations.
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