As Pakistan gears up for the pivotal general elections on February 8, 2024, the nation finds itself facing intricate challenges across politics, economy, and security. The urgency for elections has intensified due to a series of political upheavals, economic crises, and the emergence of new contenders. The dissolution of parliament, arrests of political figures, and the rise of the Pakistan Markazi Muslim League (PMML) led by Hafiz Saeed underscore the multifaceted nature of Pakistan’s current predicament. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s return to active politics, following his acquittal in corruption cases, further muddles the political waters. Power dynamics between political parties, especially the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), hint at a strategy that may involve delaying elections for reasons beyond the realm of Imran Khan’s influence.
Political Dynamics:
The political scenario in Pakistan is currently undergoing unprecedented turmoil, evident in the dissolution of the National Assembly and the arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The emergence of the Pakistan Markazi Muslim League (PMML) is purportedly linked to the remnants of the banned Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), led by Hafiz Saeed, introducing a layer of complexity to the electoral process. Despite the leadership of PMML denying any connection to Saeed’s outfit, historical associations and the ban on the Milli Muslim League (MML) in 2018 raise scepticism about its true nature.
The forthcoming general elections in Pakistan are now overshadowed by a significant and contentious development—the rise of the Pakistan Markazi Muslim League (PMML). Despite being in prison since 2019 for terror finance convictions, Hafiz Saeed, the mastermind behind the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, strategically launches his political party, PMML. His move involves fielding candidates across all national and provincial assembly constituencies. Conspicuously, his son, Talha Saeed, is set to run in Lahore’s NA-127 constituency, adding significant weight to PMML’s political impact.
The central figure in PMML, Khalid Masood Sindhu, emphasizes a commitment to serving the people and transforming Pakistan into an Islamic welfare state, distancing the party from allegations of ties with the banned Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD). However, scepticism prevails, particularly with Sindhu’s candidacy in NA-130, where former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has filed his nomination and contesting. This development raises profound concerns about the sanctity, fairness, and transparency of the electoral process in Pakistan.
The potential influence of a party associated with a UN-designated terrorist leader participating in critical constituencies adds complexity to an already intricate political scenario. As Pakistan approaches a crucial juncture, the implications of PMML’s involvement underscore the challenges of maintaining democratic norms and the need for vigilance in ensuring the integrity of the electoral process.
Sharif’s Acquittal: A Game-Changer
The Islamabad High Court’s recent acquittal of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in a graft case paves the way for his participation in the election. This decision follows the restoration of Sharif’s right to appeal a 2018 conviction related to luxury London apartments, marking a significant landmark in his return to active politics. With only one legal hurdle remaining, concerning additional graft charges, Sharif’s potential role in the elections gains prominence. Despite previous disqualification due to corruption convictions, his comeback and acquittal raise questions about the broader political landscape and hint at a possible return to power. This development occurs amid the backdrop of Imran Khan’s political challenges, imprisonment, and accusations of conspiracy. The upcoming elections are poised to be a crucial chapter, shaping the trajectory of Pakistan’s political future.
Military and Political Tensions:
Pakistan grapples with a power struggle between its military and political leadership, exemplified by the ousting of Imran Khan. Initially aligned, Khan’s falling out with former military chief Qamar Javed Bajwa led to violent protests and subsequent military interventions. The increasing influence of the military, evident in trials of civilian leaders, raises concerns about democratic erosion.
Military interventions to suppress dissent and enact laws enhancing intelligence agencies’ powers cast doubt on the fairness of future elections. High-profile arrests, including that of Imran Khan, suggest a deliberate attempt to shape afresh political equation.
The nation is embroiled in profound political upheaval as military-backed establishments clash with a populace demanding civilian rule. Geopolitical complexities involving China, the United States, and Arab nations intensify power dynamics, while Pakistan cautiously navigates to avoid entanglements in the U.S.-China rivalry, historically favouring China over arch-rival India.
At the core of Pakistan’s internal strife is the power struggle revolving around Imran Khan, the charismatic former Prime Minister. Despite Khan’s popularity, his removal by the dynastic civilian political establishment, backed by the military, has triggered widespread discontent. The suppression of Khan’s party, PTI, through arrests and legal manoeuvres, raises concerns about the fairness of upcoming elections. This internal unrest unfolds against the backdrop of a persistent terrorist threat, with recent attacks and ongoing protests in Balochistan and a challenging situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) adding complexity to the situation.
Internationally, competing powers vie for Pakistan’s allegiance, with China emerging as a prominent contender. Balancing these relationships is paramount to avoid alienating either the U.S. or China. The ultimate challenge remains stabilizing Pakistan’s economy and political framework amid mounting military and political tensions both domestically and on the global stage.
Economic Woes:
In the lead-up to the February 2024 elections, Pakistan contends with severe economic challenges, setting the stage for a complex political scenario. The inflation rate, though showing a slight decline to 29% from the record high of 38% in June, has inflicted catastrophic consequences on essential food items, doubling their costs and exacerbating the plight of the poor and working class.
Global factors such as the war in Ukraine, post-pandemic recovery hurdles, and volatile energy prices have impacted the cost of living worldwide. In Pakistan’s case, internal issues compound the economic woes. The political crisis triggered by Imran Khan’s ousting in April 2022 led to prolonged protest rallies, paralyzing economic activity. The interim caretaker administration, currently in charge until the upcoming elections, faces the daunting task of steering the country through this period of uncertainty.
Natural disasters, including devastating floods and a series of terrorist attacks, have further strained the nation. The economic toll of these events, coupled with a negative global perception of Pakistan’s law and order and business friendliness, has hindered foreign investment.
A significant blow to Pakistan’s economic stability is reflected in its foreign exchange reserves plummeting below $3 billion, insufficient to cover a month’s worth of imports. Emergency funding of $3 billion from the IMF in July, along with support from allies like China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, aims to address the foreign currency reserve crisis..
Ahead of an IMF review, the interim government, implemented substantial increases in natural gas prices to alleviate losses for the state-run gas sector. This surge in energy costs, alongside doubled electricity tariffs, has forced many factories to shut down, leading to widespread job losses.
Despite China’s significant investments in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as part of the Belt and Road Initiative, concerns persist about the feasibility of repaying Chinese loans, which the IMF estimates to be around $30bn. This influx of investments has raised questions about the sustainability of borrowed funds and potential future liabilities. Amidst these challenges, Pakistan faces a monumental task in revitalizing its economy, regardless of the government that assumes power post the February elections.
Security and Terrorism:
The spectre of terrorism looms large over Pakistan, with jihadist threats expected to escalate in 2024. The toxic nature of jihadist strategic assets and the potential for terror attacks pose serious challenges. The strained relationship with the Emirate of Afghanistan adds to the security dilemma.
The military’s inclination to address terror threats through cross-border strikes risks escalating tensions and economic costs. The alignment of political and military interests in dealing with jihadist elements raises questions about long-term stability and the impact on the electoral process.
Uncertain Electoral Future:
As Pakistan approaches the 2024 elections, doubts persist about the adherence to constitutional norms and the fairness of the electoral process. The power struggles, military interference, economic challenges, and security threats contribute to an environment where a truly democratic solution seems elusive.
The potential delay in elections, the tarnished delimitation process, and the side-lining of key political figures raise concerns about the credibility of the electoral process. The allegations of vote rigging and the lack of trust between state and society further complicate the path to political stability.
Additional Problems:
- Legal Ambiguities: The legal landscape surrounding the eligibility of key political figures, such as Nawaz Sharif, remains clouded. The interpretation of lifetime disqualification and constitutional provisions adds legal complexities, raising questions about the rule of law.
- Extradition Requests and Geopolitical Tensions: India’s extradition request for Hafiz Saeed adds another layer of complexity, involving geopolitical tensions. The lack of an extradition treaty between India and Pakistan and the involvement of figures with alleged terrorist links introduce external pressures into an already tumultuous electoral environment.
- Deteriorating Civil-Military Relations: The increasing influence of the military in economic and policy matters raises concerns about civil-military relations. The creation of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) and its potential impact on the elected government’s autonomy underscores the fragile nature of these relations.
- Social Unrest and Political Alienation: The arrest and imprisonment of political leaders, including Imran Khan, contribute to social unrest. The perceived interference in the democratic process by military authorities fuels political alienation among citizens, further undermining the stability of the electoral system.
Conclusion: Pakistan’s trajectory in 2024 is rife with challenges that demand a nuanced and comprehensive approach. The interplay of political, economic, and security issues necessitates a careful examination of the democratic process. The international community’s role in advocating for democratic norms and stability in the region becomes crucial. The choices made in the upcoming elections will not only shape Pakistan’s future but will resonate across geopolitical and geo-economics domains, emphasizing the need for a resilient and transparent electoral process.
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