The view from China is important as the tensions around it make up the fundamental backdrop within which both the Gaza and Ukraine conflicts are playing out.
In November in San Francisco, with the meeting between US and Chinese presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping, a kind of truce or cease-fire was agreed between the two sides’ tensions.
On one hand, this assures the US that a third front will not open up at least anytime soon. To China, on the other hand, it allows a moment of pause as elections in Taiwan loom in January.
If the self-governing island declares formal independence and pushes against Beijing, the issue would become unsettling for Beijing. In addition, the Chinese economy is in serious trouble. China needs time and energy to get back on track.
The truce is good for both, but it is only a truce. We’ll have to see in the next few months, over a period of four to 14 months, whether this will provide room for something more substantial. Right now, though, it doesn’t.
And so, looking backward, the horizons are apparent. Of course, there is the Gaza conflict. Here it seems that Israel basically says that by March it will have taken over and eliminated the armed wing of Hamas.
That is a wish and a hope because not only is Hamas Israel’s enemy but a coalition of enemies has formed against Hamas. Many Arab countries do not want their policies hijacked by Hamas after being hijacked previously by ISIS, al-Qaeda, and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO).
And there is Europe, which, beyond the protests in the pro-Palestinian squares, fears the risk of a wave of Islamic terrorism sponsored by Hamas itself.
So, beyond the declarations of principle of this or that Middle Eastern government, in reality, there is a very broad consensus against Hamas. There is, however, beyond that, a growing suspicion of Israel.
It is a basic problem that Israel has not made much progress in solving the Palestinian issue since the 1993 Oslo agreement with the PLO. The Palestinian issue was put aside because it seemed unsolvable. And so, if unsolvable, it was no longer an issue.
It was a position, while understandable, that has exploded in recent months. The Palestinian issue still has to be resolved one way or another because millions of people need a credible idea of a future that is not just the alternative between staying in a closed space or surrendering to Hamas terrorists.
Israel has to think about another perspective. Now perhaps it is emerging. It has opened up the idea of the Cotton Road: a political-commercial communication corridor that goes from India through Saudi Arabia, then Jordan and Israel, and then to Europe.
Israel has to find a way to integrate more and better with the rest of the Middle East. Israel has to stop being a kind of European outpost in the Middle East. It has to be a bridge to Europe and the West in the Middle East. It has to be a space of growth for Israel itself, for the Middle East, and for the West.
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