Over the last two decades, South Asian nations have struggled to maintain their democracies against internal and external threats with significant assistance from the international community. Despite their best efforts, however, democracy has been steadily declining over the last several years, endangering not just the viability of democracy but also larger geostrategic interests.
South Asian political unrest
One striking illustration of the aforementioned pattern is the recent detention of Imran Khan, Pakistan’s well-liked and even populist leader. It is common knowledge that the ISI and other members of Pakistan’s security apparatus are behind the scenes influencing the democratic process to strengthen their position.
In April of last year, then-prime minister Imran Khan lost a no-confidence vote, paving the door for his successor, Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif’s hard stance towards demonstrators and his shown allegiance to the military are two examples of his leadership. He spoke out against Khan’s propaganda campaign against the army and demanded that those responsible be punished. He has already stated his intention to use military tribunals to try anti-government protesters.
Since then, political unrest has plagued Pakistan, and the country has seen its worst economic crisis in recent memory, with inflation over 30% and no agreement with the IMF in sight. Khan was found guilty in a corruption trial and sentenced to three years in jail just as Pakistan’s general elections, slated for this October, were drawing close. His five-year political exile will remove the most vocal military supporters as a potential electoral hurdle. Despite this, Khan’s popularity remains high, and his supporters say the government is trying to avoid elections by requiring a new census and constitutional redistricting, a process that will take at least four months.
The present government’s stance is expected to solidify in the coming months as a result of the ongoing political turmoil. Public anger and violence would only rise if this scenario played out in Pakistan, which is unlikely given the country’s current trajectory. Concerns over Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, possible proliferation attempts, and possible greater provocation of India are heightened by the current situation.
As Bangladesh prepares for national elections in January 2024, similar concerns of instability have developed. Although there is no threat of a military takeover in Bangladesh and the economy is booming, political tensions remain high in the nation.
Several protests have been held against the Awami League administration, and the opposition, headed by the BNP, has called for a boycott of the polls on the grounds that they would not be free and fair.
The Awami League, which has been in power since 2008, has invited international observers to monitor the upcoming elections in an effort to allay these fears. Meanwhile, the United States and other countries are taking steps to safeguard Bangladesh’s democratic process through open dialogue with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and other parties.
The BNP, however, refuses to participate in the vote until a caretaker administration is in place. The experiences of the military-backed caretaker administration of 2006 suggest that such an unlawful step might have a severe effect on the country’s economic gains over the previous decade and further destroy democracy in Bangladesh.
In the context of Indo-Pacific and superpower rivalry considerations, a scenario in which Bangladesh moves away from democracy and into political disorder would be terrible, making it impossible for India, the United States, Europe, and Japan to engage with Bangladesh.
So far, Bangladesh has been able to maintain a moderate, diverse foreign policy under Sheikh Hasina and withstand criticism from the United States and China. Since China has already established strong roots in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Nepal, the collapse of democracy in Bangladesh would make it simpler for China to spread its influence in the area.
What can the rest of the world do?
Democracy is important for more than only the protection of human and civil rights. As a result of tensions between the United States and China, there is an ongoing push to classify nations as either democratic or authoritarian. The decline of democracy in South Asia may end up helping China more than the United States, and it poses serious difficulties for the Indo-Pacific alliance in its attempts to interact with rising economies in the area.
That’s why it’s so important for the international community to back democracy, but they need to handle the issue carefully so as not to make the same errors again. Therefore, the international community should incentivize continued progress toward democracy by deploying pre-election review delegations, observers to monitor, pragmatic cooperation, and engagement strategies through regional and multilateral groups. It should be at the top of the list for countries in the Indo-Pacific, the European Union, and other middle powers with interests in the area.
Author
