Without political leaders’ involvement, will China science policy succeed?

Following global isolation, China has made a fundamental shift in favour of scientists for achieving double digit economic growth to building resilience against external shocks. The deterioration of diplomatic relations between the People’s Republic of China (PRC) with the US and its allies,  battle with the Covid-19 pandemic, and the government’s unwillingness to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have contributed to the country’s increased separation from the global West. These events have far-reaching consequences for Chinese ambitions in global science..

However, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has turned towards scientists to end dependence on “learning from the West”, and ofcourse political colleagues as well. That’s because, he thinks that scientists alone can fulfil his ambition for China to achieve economic, scientific and technological self-reliance. Experts are skeptical about the missing role of political leaders in country’s economic growth

According to a Chatham House study, the appointment of five prominent scientists to the 24-member Politburo at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in October 2022 reflects the determination of President Xi Jinping, the party’s general secretary, to ensure the country’s economic, scientific and technological self-reliance and boost its resilience to external shocks. China’s Politburo has long been dominated by economic technocrats, but a change in its overall composition confirms an important new direction in the policy intentions of the political leadership, with a much greater focus on science and technology.

London based policy institute clarified that the appointment of five scientists to the Politburo  was directly linked to their loyalty to Xi Jinping and the CPC than their scientific achievements. Of the 24 members of the 20th Politburo, five of the 11 newcomers elected in 2022 are prominent scientists. This represented a significant departure from the convention of the last two decades, whereby the CPC’s decision-making body has been mostly dominated by economic planners. The five scientists who have newly joined the Politburo are leaders in their respective fields, ranging from aerospace to environmental and nuclear sciences.

Over the last decade, China has become a highly important player in these three areas, and in many respects the country is on a par with Western competitors such as the US and France. Xi’s apparent aim now is to draw on the scientists’ expertise to help deliver his plan to promote domestic innovation and scientific self-reliance.

The current intense focus on addressing technological ‘chokepoints’ reflects Beijing’s concerns about the extent of the country’s dependence on overseas suppliers for semiconductors and other critical components. The tough geopolitical and geo-economic competition, by efforts on the part of the US and its allies have managed to curb Chinese access to critical technologies and research partnerships.  Beijing has a long list of priorities which include strengthening China’s ability to overcome ‘chokepoints’ in strategically critical technology sectors; fostering homegrown talent and ‘reshoring’ expertise to spearhead innovation; and building a resilient digital economy in line with the CPC’s own governance standards. All of these agendas respond to deep anxieties about China’s capacity for high-tech development, and about the vulnerabilities arising from its dependence on overseas suppliers for critical components ranging from semiconductors to aircraft engines.

The current state of deep tensions between China and the US – the world’s two largest economies – goes well beyond ideology and a political war of words. The underlying driver of their rivalry is a race for global technological supremacy, as part of which each country is looking to target the other’s supply-chain vulnerabilities.

The CCP has an ambitious science policy. The CCP leadership aims to turn the country into the global science superpower by 2050. It has planned to renew the National Medium- and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Science and Technology (MLP, 2006-2020). Also, China aims to be carbon-neutral by 2060 and to become the world leader in artificial intelligence (AI) technology by 2030. The 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) and the 2035 Long-term Target Outline published in March 2021 provide the country’s broad policy blueprints. Science, technology, and innovation (STI) features heavily in both, signaling it is integral to China’s overall development. For this purpose, the 14th FYP and the outline also emphasize international scientific cooperation.

China launched the “Made in China 2025” initiative in 2015 to reduce reliance on Western technology. This initiative, similar to Germany’s “Industrie 4.0,” brought together all existing policies across related fields, some of the “strategic emerging industries” and targeted priorities in automation, IT, robotics, AI, and much more under one umbrella. Drawing concern from the US and other Western countries, it was also a clear message to global scientific players to pay close attention to China’s intentions and the capacities the country had amassed. At the same time, Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign gained momentum which paralyzed Chinese institutions and delayed the implementation of a wide range of measures.

Xi government has called upon scientists and scholars to help weave the “China Dream” in the “New Era,” and to excel globally—while not forgetting their affiliation with the “motherland” in whose interest they compete. Chinese authorities have called for a reduction in importing foreign research and education models and content (expressed e.g., by the curtailing of international education services operating in China, or the declared ban of foreign textbooks). The leadership continuously encourages the creation of national characteristics in science, including the building of “Chinese theory,” and world-class universities “with Chinese characteristics.”

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