China is perceived to have all the qualities to be a hegemony nation. It means China will be able to shape the political system of any nation; build its own grouping of countries; and enforce its own principles in international trade and business, likewise the United States of America was able to do after World War II.
A book by William T Bowe about China’s history states that China had held the preeminent post of East Asian hegemon for almost two millennia. But it then suffered a decline during its imperial era, the great Qing dynasty. The decline of this regional hegemony, constituting East Asia, came soon after the first Opium war in 1839, and ended after the second world war in 1945. This period is reflected as “Century of Humiliation” in Chinese history and gave China an idea of military and economic expansion. In 1978, Deng Xiaoping became the architect of modern China and gave the philosophy of “bide your time and hide your strength.”
By the late 1990s and early 2000s China had grown tremendously with the strategy of “peaceful development” and the US and Asian-Pacific started to acknowledge China becoming a coercive power, challenging the status quo. Meanwhile, the United States was able to disintegrate USSR into Russia and open its economy to be run as per capitalism. The United States took China lightly and allowed them to offer cheap labour and export its products under a communist strategy.
In 2008, global recession hit the world and Deng Xiaoping’s strategy of “bide your time and hide your strength” showed its true potential. While whole of Europe and the US were badly shaken by the economic turmoil, China remained unaffected. China had now become self- sufficient due to its exporting prowess and has generated forex in US dollars. So, at the time crisis, China bought multiple government bonds from the US, financing their debts. This was the time for China to invest and expand its military abilities using the same foreign reserves it has been accumulating for years. This is time the prospects of Chinese hegemony was visible for the world.
This was also the period, after 2008, of the decline of US hegemony. As per a report from Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the US ran a trade deficit every year since 1976, and the US national debt is predicted to be 716% of GDP by 2080. China has currently posed itself as the main competitor of United States and it is financing America’s debt through the purchase of US Treasury bonds. Few significant points that places China ahead of United States are – China now has largest foreign exchange reserve in the world ($3.18 trillion); economic growth rate in double digits for considerable time (10.35 in 2010); and China is projected to overtake American economy by 2041. In terms of burgeoning economic power China is currently placed at second position after the United States. Moreover, 40% of total foreign investment is flowing into China. China’s export growth rate of three times of the world average as it holds down imports through currency manipulation and tariffs.
People Republic of China (PRC) is also engaged in full scale modernization of its military using its burgeoning wealth; increasing its military budget year on year with the latest being $225 billion for FY 2024. Diplomatically, China is also posing itself as a global environment messiah
for the poorer nations assisting them with budget for cleaner technologies. China is permanent member of United Nation Security Council and keeps supporting UN’s Peace keeping missions. China is also aggressivelypushing its expansion in South China sea by building islands that will further boost its maritime claims in this territory. China’s BRI initiative is another well-though strategy that aims to build an alternative market to ensure sustained economic growth with zero reliance on the West (US and EU). China, under BRI initiative, has taken over Hambantota port as a strategic location in the Indian ocean and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had ceded lucrative mines, giving access to territories of the neighbouring nations.
It is understood that a country becomes a hegemony only when it poses itself as a global solution to a major crisis. Like United States did after World War II and the great depression. Does China has the will and ability, like the US, to come forward and aid the world at the time of crisis such as Covid? Unfortunately, it never appeared so. As per a survey done by Global Times Chinese people are in self-doubt as only 12% believed that China is a superpower. Comprehensive National Power (CNP) Index statistically measures economic strength, military might, soft power status, and much more of a nation, and its reflects that China is still very weak and will not be able to overtake US in the 21st century. Even the top Chinese leaders such as Mao Zedong has publicly said that “We never seek to be hegemony.” He knew that a hegemony needs to be interventionist, like the US was in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and that requires a lot of investment. China would rather see Europe be the next hegemon.
PRC further believes in multipolarity, with number of EU members, including France, which visualizes China as a strong threat to America’s world dominance. Geographically speaking China also doesn’t have the insulation that the U.S. had, in fact, it has been surrounded by the nation that are in direct conflict with China at the borders. These neighbouring nations will never let China be a hegemon and they have their own alliances to counter China, such as the Quad and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Moreover, there are some internal dynamics that are also not in favour, Western China is also home to Xinjiang, or eastern Turkestan, and both Tibet, both aspiring for freedom from China. While the US had the advantage of both Atlantic and Pacific maritime coasts, China only has immediate access to Pacific ocean, which is another blow to China’s dreams of becoming a hegemony. Finally, China restricts access to internet, manipulates internal media, and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds and monopoly in political power. This communist ideology of control in China has failed innovation; blocks sharing of knowledge, and stifles liberty and democracy, which eventually depicts China poorly as a super power. Furthermore, there are multiple separatists movements ongoing in China that are fighting oppression of Muslims in Xiangjiang, Buddhists in Tibet, and Catholics throughout China. The biggest threat in current times is unemployment and poverty in China. China trade war with the US and its failing economy has led to degrading growth rate of 6.5%, which is not enough to create jobs and boost standard of living. Therefore, China will never be able to rule the global order.
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