Opinion Archives - Page 12 of 45

30Sep

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Revocation of China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status and its effects on the economy

The United States’ granting of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status, formerly known as most favored nation status, to China in 2000 resulted in a large expansion of bilateral trade. Concerns over Chinese trade practices and the impact of Chinese exports on US import-competing sectors have contributed to US political discontent and calls for the revocation of PNTR, including by former president Donald Trump in his reelection campaign and in the 2024 Republican Party Platform. The authors find that revoking China’s PNTR status would cause higher inflation and a short-term decline in US gross domestic product relative to baseline from which the economy never fully recovers. The loss of output and employment would be felt unevenly across the economy, with agriculture, durable manufa

30Sep

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The strategy underlying China’s financial transactions and the reasons behind its desire for increased involvement in Africa

China’s relationship with Africa is set to deepen. At a summit in Beijing in early September, China’s president, Xi Jinping, pledged to deliver US$51 billion (£39 billion) in loans, investment and aid to the continent over the next three years, as well as upgrading diplomatic ties. Beijing’s close engagement with Africa is not new. Since 1950, the first overseas trip of the year for Chinese foreign ministers has almost always been to one or more African countries. But Xi’s commitments are still sure to raise concerns in the US and other western countries, which are competing with China for global influence. They may well also bring back fears of China using “debt-trap diplomacy” to push African countries into default and thereby gain leverage over them. Such is the st

28Sep

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The incoming president of Sri Lanka must walk a tightrope between politics and policy.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake won Sri Lanka's presidential election on 21 September 2024, marking a historic shift in the country’s politics. He is the first candidate outside the two main elite parties to gain power post-independence. His victory comes amid widespread disillusionment with the previous government and a severe economic crisis, raising questions about his ability to implement necessary reforms while navigating domestic constituencies and international pressure. Anura Kumara Dissanayake has emerged victorious in Sri Lanka’s presidential election, held on 21 September 2024. Dissanayake, who obtained 42.3 per cent of the votes, managed to secure victory over his closest competitor Sajith Premadasa, who gained 32.8 per cent of votes. This represents a historic change in the co

28Sep

By Online DeskNo Comments

The incoming president of Sri Lanka must walk a tightrope between politics and policy.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake won Sri Lanka's presidential election on 21 September 2024, marking a historic shift in the country’s politics. He is the first candidate outside the two main elite parties to gain power post-independence. His victory comes amid widespread disillusionment with the previous government and a severe economic crisis, raising questions about his ability to implement necessary reforms while navigating domestic constituencies and international pressure. Anura Kumara Dissanayake has emerged victorious in Sri Lanka’s presidential election, held on 21 September 2024. Dissanayake, who obtained 42.3 per cent of the votes, managed to secure victory over his closest competitor Sajith Premadasa, who gained 32.8 per cent of votes. This represents a historic change in the co

26Sep

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High-Level Conference on Antimicrobial Resistance at the UN General Assembly in 2024

The second High-Level Meeting on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) on 26 September 2024 will be the principal official, health-focused event during the UNGA high-level week. Without decisive action, such as that outlined in the political declaration for the meeting, AMR will cause even more global suffering, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites no longer respond to medicines, making people sicker and increasing the spread of infections that are difficult to treat, leading to illness and deaths. The intergovernmental negotiations for the declaration were co-facilitated by Malta and Barbados. The High-Level Meeting will be livestreamed on UN Web TV. A livestreamed&nb

25Sep

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Japan’s Unexpected Election

In a record-breaking year for democratic leadership changes around the world, Japan may turn out to be this year’s surprise package. Two billion people are scheduled to vote in free elections in 50 countries this year, including the US and India. An election in Japan does not have to be held until late 2025, but political crisis within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) means that Japan is almost certain to see an early general election, possibly before the end of this year. The crisis has the potential to radically change Japan’s sclerotic politics and could have consequences for New Zealand and the broader region. Japan’s politics are infamously stable. The LDP has held power for all but 4 of the last 65 years. But for the last three decades i

24Sep

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The growth stimulus plan is unveiled by China’s central bank.

A rate cut, an RRR cut, and further property market measures will support efforts to reach this year’s growth target. They’re the latest monetary policy easing measures from the People’s Bank of China The PBOC continues to ease policy in a bid to support growth With a slew of weak economic data in the last few months, we have already noted that time is running out to reach this year's growth target without aggressive policy support. After last week's 50bp rate cut from the Fed and subsequent CNY strengthening, we also argued that the PBOC no longer had its hands bound to maintain currency stability and now had a window for monetary policy easing. Rather than spacing out multiple small easing measures, the PBOC announced a multitude of measu

23Sep

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Will China’s tough circumstances lead to good policy?

China is facing its third major deflationary episode in the past three decades, and it is yet to be seen if policymakers can implement the 'circuit breakers' necessary to break out of the economic downturn. With diminishing returns to China's investment-led development model and the geopolitical implications of a manufacturing stimulus, China needs to reorient towards a consumption-led growth model. The possibility of Chinese accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership could provide the external pressure to undertake such reforms, similar to the strategy for liberalisation during China's accession to the World Trade Organisation. China’s economic problems are everyone’s economic problems. As Huw McKay writes in this week’s lead article, C

22Sep

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China’s economic policymakers must be brave.

China is experiencing its third deflationary episode of the 21st century due to weak consumer confidence following the global COVID-19 crisis and the ongoing contraction in its property market. Past deflationary periods have been resolved through circuits breakers like resolving balance sheet issues and supply side reform that addressed heavy industrial debt issues. Just as previous economic rebounds required dramatic circuit breakers to restore growth, this latest crisis calls for bold reforms targeting local government debt, consumer confidence and the property market. China is in the middle of its third major deflationary episode in the past three decades. China’s global footprint is now so large that uncertainty over the timing of its exit from the current episode is one of the mos

21Sep

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In Sri Lanka’s first election since the country’s economic meltdown, polls are closing.

Sri Lankans voted on Saturday in the country's first presidential election since its economic collapse, with the unpopular IMF austerity plan at the forefront of voters' minds. President Ranil Wickremesinghe faces tough opposition as his economic reforms, though stabilising the nation, have caused widespread hardship, fuelling support for candidates advocating political change. Cash-strapped Sri Lanka concluded its voting for the next president on Saturday, marking an effective referendum on the unpopular International Monetary Fund (IMF) austerity plan introduced after the country’s unprecedented financial crisis. President Ranil Wickremesinghe is battling for a fresh mandate to continue the belt-tightening measures that have stabil