Political turmoil following the mass uprising in July–August 2024 in Bangladesh, which toppled Sheikh Hasina’s autocratic regime, has opened a political vacuum being filled by Islamic political parties. The potential rise of political Islam raises opportunities and challenges about the future of Bangladesh’s neutral religious values and governance, with profound implications for the future of the country’s democracy.
The mass uprising that led to the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year autocratic regime has ushered in a new political order in Bangladesh. As the once-dominant Awami League (AL) and its principal rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), grapple with declining public trust and internal strife, a political vacuum has emerged.
This vacuum is increasingly being filled by Islamic political parties who are capitalising on the declining support for traditional political parties and the lack of a robust leftist presence. The students who led the mass uprising launched the National Citizen Party, but its delayed entry into formal politics has allowed Islamic parties to reorganise and recover lost influence.
The rise of political Islam raises critical questions about the future of Bangladesh’s democracy, neutral religious values and governance.
For decades, Bangladesh’s political landscape has largely been dominated by the AL and the BNP, two parties that have alternated power since the restoration of democracy in 1991. But the AL’s prolonged rule under Sheikh Hasina, marked by authoritarianism, corruption and suppression of dissent, has left many citizens disillusioned.
The BNP, historically the largest opposition party, was significantly weakened during AL regime by harassment, imprisonment of its leaders and internal divisions. The recent release of former BNP prime minister Khaleda Zia and the potential return of her son Tarique Rahman from political exile may increase morale, but is unlikely to restore the BNP to its former glory.
The decline of these traditional parties has created a political vacuum in Bangladesh. With the BNP struggling to maintain relevance and the AL trying to regain support, smaller Islamic parties are stepping into the spotlight. Once marginalised under Hasina’s rule, these parties are now reasserting their presence and expanding their influence across the country.
Islamic parties have historically played a role in Bangladesh’s politics, particularly during the anti-Ershad mass uprising in 1990 and the BNP-led government tenure in 1991 and 2001. Notable characteristics of this period were the inclusion of religious rhetoric in mainstream politics and the coalition between the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI).
Hefazat-e-Islam, while not a formal political party, acts as an Islamic pressure group, first gained momentum in 2013 following the Shapla Chattar massacre and has since emerged as a significant socio-political force, leveraging its substantial support base and outspoken leadership. Islamic parties are gaining traction by promoting a political model based on Islamic doctrine, appealing to religious sentiments of a population that is 91 per cent Muslim.
The rise of Islamic parties is accelerated by their ability to engage with grassroots communities, spanning from urban centres to rural areas, through the promotion of preachers, social welfare initiatives, educational support and disaster relief efforts. With mainstream parties failing to meet public needs and sentiments, Islamic parties are emerging as alternatives, combining religious values with social services to strengthen their appeal and expand their influence.
When police went on strike on 6 August 2024, Islamic parties were among the groups that helped to protect minority-owned properties and places of worship. Their active role in maintaining order during this crisis underscored their growing influence in the country’s socio-political landscape.
A significant development in Bangladesh’s political landscape is the growing trend of coalition-building among Islamic parties to consolidate their influence. The recent courtesy meeting between BJI leader Dr Shafiqur Rahman and Islami Andolan Bangladesh leader Mufti Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim indicates the possibility of unity between the two parties.
But this process is not without challenges. Theological differences — such as conflicting views on the Sufi-influenced practices popular among many Bangladeshi Muslims — have historically divided Islamic parties and could hinder their ability to form a cohesive coalition. And the BJI’s controversial past, particularly its ties to Pakistan during Bangladesh’s Liberation War in 1971, remains a deeply divisive issue that could alienate potential allies.
Islamic parties have historically struggled to achieve electoral success and their popular support has consistently remained below 10 per cent in all parliamentary elections. But their increasing popularity and organisational capacity indicate a potential for greater political influence in future elections.
Whether Islamic parties can form a cohesive coalition, address theological differences and gain electoral success will significantly shape Bangladesh’s political future. This could benefit the democratic principle of pluralism, allowing diverse voices to participate in the political process and contributing to a shift toward equity-based policies.
But the potential rise of political Islam in Bangladesh may also lead to the erosion of neutral religious values and the rise of conservative sentiments. Incidents such as the cancellation of women’s football matches, threats against a mystic sect’s music festival, and attacks on shrines and Sufi centres underscore the possible erosion of liberalism.
As Bangladesh prepares for a general election expected in late 2025 or early 2026, traditional parties must address their internal challenges and prioritise understanding public sentiment while strategically planning their next political moves. Only by reconnecting with the electorate can the AL, BNP and others hope to reclaim their prominence in the evolving political landscape.
The success of both the traditional parties and their new Islamic challengers in navigating these challenges will have profound implications for the future of Bangladesh’s democracy, governance and societal values. The country’s future hinges on today’s choices — paving the way for inclusivity and stability, or yielding to autocracy and division.