There is a mix of unreliability, uncertainties and apprehensions about the US-Pakistan relations after Donald Trump has taken over. The financial aid from the US is less likely to reach Pakistan even as Islamabad would have a difficult task of walking tightrope between the US and China.
Husain Haqqani, former Pakistani Ambassador to the US, said Pakistan would not be important for the Trump administration. “Pakistan used to be a leading recipient of US aid post-9/11. But in recent years, aid has drastically reduced. Issues like Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs, its relationship with China, and alleged support for militants are what concern the US,” said Haqqani, who is also a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute.
The bilateral relations had deteriorated during Trump’s first term. In 2018, Trump had suspended USD 300 million aid to Pakistan for failing to take action against terror groups. Trump has lost trust in Pakistan as he blamed the country for deceiving the US by providing a safe haven to militant networks even as receiving billions of dollars.
Pakistan ceased to be an important US ally after the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, and the growing Sino-US rivalry would create more problems for the Islamabad. Highlighting on shift of the US focus on the Middle East crisis now, former Pakistani diplomat Abdul Basit said “Pakistan-US relations have lost their erstwhile lustre for a slew of reasons, mainly the simmering Middle East crisis, and pullout from Afghanistan,” he said. Moreover, the increasing proximity between India and the US would add to the problem, he added.
Against the backdrop of intense US-China trade war, Islamabad would be in a tight spot over which one to support. Pakistan would be in soup if China seeks its support amid strong US trade sanctions. China is already aggrieved at poor performance of China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), thanks to lower returns and frequent terror attacks.
Pakistan may choose “constant friend” China as the has been a transactional friend and Pakistan’s importance would cease once American interests are ceased, said former Pakistani diplomat Asif Durrani. “And we in any case, if we have to choose between the US and China, I think it is so obvious that Pakistan will choose China,” said Durrani, who serves as
Pakistan’s former special representative for Afghanistan. This would certainly be despised by the Trump administration.
The second Trump term would be more problematic to Pakistan thanks to reduction in the US aid and American security goals vis-a-vis China, said renowned investment expert Yousuf Nazar. “Trump is more likely to slash aid and focus exclusively on what serves immediate American interests. Pakistan, long a recipient of American aid, may find itself on the wrong end of these budget cuts,” he said.
While Pakistan may not be in Trump’s list of high priorities, he might see Islamabad being closer to Beijing, said Shuja Nawaz, a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Centre. “He also might further subscribe to the Biden administration view that Pakistan is now in the Chinese lap,” Nawaz said.
Trump has preferences for clear-cut alliance and Pakistan’s allegiance with China may not sound well for the US-Pakistan relations. “Trump’s previous administration escalated tensions with China… expect this rivalry to heat up even further—and for Pakistan to feel the pressure. For Islamabad, walking the tightrope between Washington and Beijing would be a hazardous act, with the very real risk of diplomatic fallout on either side,” he said.
Us has already imposed sanctions on the Pakistani missile programme, with concerns over “proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery”. Moreover, a few US lawmakers and rights activists demanded action against military trials of civilians in Pakistan and anti-democratic measures against supporters of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The political ties between the two countries are expected to remain strained during the Trump 2.0, said Madiha Afzal, fellow at the Washington-based Brooking Institution. “The reality, then, is that the low-level equilibrium of U.S.-Pakistan relations that has characterized the past few years is here to stay,” she said.