New Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces major obstacles in pushing his ambitious defence agenda as polling suggests his party will lose ground in Sunday’s general election, forcing it to lean more heavily on its pacifist coalition partner.
Analysts say Japanese voters are more focused on domestic issues such as rising living costs than foreign policy or defence, which will also make it difficult for Ishiba to prioritise his controversial security reforms that include a proposal for an “Asian version of Nato”.
Polling ahead of the October 27 election indicates the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may lose its majority in the lower house, which means it is likely it will have to rely on its coalition partner, Komeito, to remain in power.
The LDP, which has held sole control of the chamber since it returned to power in 2012 after three years in opposition, may struggle to reach the 233 seats needed for an outright majority in the 465-seat chamber, the Nikkei newspaper reported on Thursday.
Ishiba’s government already depends on Komeito for a majority in the upper house, and extending that reliance to the more powerful lower house could give the political party a greater say in policymaking.
Komeito has previously opposed some of the LDP’s more hawkish security policies, voicing particular reluctance towards providing Japan’s military with longer-range missiles and lifting restrictions on weapons exports, which have prevented Tokyo from sending arms to conflict zones such as Ukraine or Southeast Asia.
Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of international political economy at the University of Tokyo, said while the LDP under Ishiba would “lose many seats”, it would still retain the majority together with Komeito.
Komeito was unlikely to play a huge role in defence policy, Suzuki said, noting that the party, which was founded by members of the Buddhist Soka Gakkai movement in 1964, went along with former prime minister Shinzo Abe’s security policies.
For instance in July 2015, Komeito backed Abe’s push to revise the constitution to give Japan’s military limited powers to fight in foreign conflicts for the first time since World War II.
“Ishiba has been out of mainstream LDP, so he does not have a strong power base in the party. The loss of seats will give him less power than he wanted to have. This means that he won’t be able to push his policy agenda forward,” Suzuki said.
Ishiba, known for his defence expertise, proposed creating an “Asian version of Nato” in a commentary to the US-based Hudson Institute think tank released just days before he took office on October 1, describing it as “essential to deter China”.
He has also suggested revising the Status of Forces Agreement, which governs the US military presence in Japan.
Suzuki said both proposals would “require a lot of political capital to move forward”.
Michael Cucek, an assistant professor at Japan’s Temple University, said “anything less than a smashing victory” in the election would fall short of giving Ishiba the political strength needed to advance his agenda on nuclear weapons sharing or allowing the transit of nuclear weapons through Japanese territory and waters.
Before becoming prime minister, Ishiba pushed for the idea of US nuclear weapons sharing in the Asia-Pacific, arguing it was necessary to counter threats from China, North Korea and Russia.
Cucek argued that Japan’s self-defence capacity hinged more on the outcome of November’s US presidential election than the LDP’s performance in Sunday’s election.
Masato Kamikubo, a professor at the Graduate School of Policy Science at Japan’s Ritsumeikan University, said even if the LDP lost its majority and opposition parties including the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) garnered more seats, Japan’s security policy was unlikely to change.
“There is no possibility of realising” Ishiba’s idea of an Asian version of Nato, Kamikubo said, noting that Ishiba’s cabinet had announced intentions to continue the security policies of the previous Fumio Kishida administration.
“This is supported by the LDP. In addition, Komeito has also agreed on security policy since the Kishida administration. Komeito will not change its stance after the general election,” he said.
During an October 13 debate, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda acknowledged the deterioration of Japan’s security environment and committed to continuing Kishida’s policies, including doubling the defence budget and reinforcing ties with the US.
Kamikubo said that should the LDP lose its majority, expectations for Sanae Takaichi – who came second in the LDP presidential election and remained popular – were expected to grow within the party.
“If Takaichi, who is known as a conservative and hawk, increases her political influence, the Ishiba administration will push more strongly for the strengthening of [Japan’s] security capabilities,” Kamikubo said.
He noted that both Ishiba and Noda are pragmatic leaders with relatively similar political views, which he believes will enable them to “discuss and decide on policies”.
Raymond Yamamoto, an associate professor at Denmark’s Aarhus University, said an LDP-Komeito coalition would give Komeito “considerable leverage to push through its own agenda”, which mainly focuses on social welfare and pacifism.
However, Komeito is not the only factor that will restrict Ishiba’s defence and security policy choices, according to Yamamoto, who says recent polls suggest Japanese voters do not prioritise foreign policy and security issues.
Voters were mostly concerned about the economy, particularly increased living costs, he said, adding that improving the economic situation was “far more urgent and tangible for most Japanese than hard security issues related to China, North Korea or Russia”.
“This election is also strongly shaped by the voters’ wish to end the corruption that has plagued the LDP since the Abe administration,” Yamamoto said, referring to scandals involving nearly 1 billion yen (US$6.7 million) in unreported political funds from faction fundraisers, particularly within the faction formerly led by Abe.
“To regain the voters’ trust, Ishiba needs to focus on domestic issues. Consequently, it can be expected that Ishiba will refrain from spending much political capital on controversial new security initiatives,” Yamamoto added.