Europe is “not naive” about Beijing’s alignment with Moscow, but is trying to “buy ourselves a little bit more time to remilitarize,” analyst Ivana Karásková has said, as EU leaders keep economic channels with China open despite growing security concerns.
Karásková, China team lead at the Association for International Affairs in Prague, told TVP World’s On the Record program that Europe is attempting to manage a volatile triangle between the EU, China and a less predictable United States while Russia’s war against Ukraine grinds on.
Karásková argued that, for Russia, the “ideal outcome is complete disruption of the European Union” and NATO, while China’s objectives are different: it wants access to EU markets and prefers to deal with a functioning bloc even as it seeks to “play one country against another” and weaken the European Commission.
Central Europe: skepticism returns
Karásková said China’s much-hyped “16+1” engagement with Central and Eastern Europe delivered more political theater than broad-based investment, with the benefits unevenly distributed and with the Russia-China relationship now a “huge obstacle” for any return to a “honeymoon” period.
Hungary remains an exception. Beijing has expanded its footprint there through loans and marquee projects, even as critics question the long-term economic payoff.
For countries closer to the front line, security concerns are increasingly intertwined with trade: last year’s Poland-Belarus border restrictions, for instance, were reported to have disrupted a major Chinese export route into Europe.
At the same time, Karásková warned that Chinese influence networks in the region are “hugely undervalued” and harder to spot than Russia’s because China brings “technology and… money” to bear.