In Brief
Bangladesh’s 2024 student-led uprising reshaped the political landscape, removing the Awami League from power and creating new political alignments. With the interim government prosecuting Awami League leaders and banning the party, concerns have emerged about the inclusiveness and credibility of the 2026 general election. The next government will face major economic, governance and climate challenges, requiring reforms to stabilise inflation, curb corruption and strengthen climate resilience. Bangladesh’s democratic prospects rest on building institutions strong enough to prevent future state capture, regardless of who forms government.
Following the student-led mass movement that brought down the Sheikh Hasina government in August 2024, Bangladesh entered a fraught transition under an interim administration. Whether this moment becomes a democratic turning point will depend on the country’s ability to rebuild institutions while navigating deep economic, geopolitical and climate pressures.
The transition has been marked by the systematic legal and political dismantling of the former ruling elite to hold them accountable for past abuses. The interim government has prosecuted former prime minister Sheikh Hasina and other senior Awami League leaders in Bangladesh’s International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), with Hasina sentenced to death on 17 November 2025 for crimes against humanity.
The interim government imposed a ban on the Awami League under the Anti-Terrorism Act, prohibiting political activity and participation in elections. A ban was also imposed on the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the Awami League’s student wing, in response to demands from the Anti-Discrimination Student Movement.
The legal proceedings against Sheikh Hasina and the potential ban on the Awami League are highly contested. Proponents see these actions as crucial for accountability to end impunity and safeguard long-term democratic health against authoritarian relapse. Conversely, critics view the use of the war crimes tribunal for contemporary political cases as questionably legitimate and potentially political vengeance, arguing that banning the Awami League would undermine the fundamental principle of pluralism necessary for a competitive democracy, risking greater instability.
The decision to remove the country’s oldest party from the arena will alter the nature of political competition in the 2026 national parliamentary election and has sparked questions over electoral inclusivity and credibility. Regional partners, including India, have called for a ‘free, fair, inclusive and participatory’ election in Bangladesh.
The ousting of the Hasina-led Awami League has rapidly shifted power dynamics, unleashing old conflicts and revitalising suppressed interest groups. The main contenders emerging from the political vacuum are the established Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the resurgent Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI) and the student-led National Citizen Party. The swift resurgence of the BJI demonstrates a distinct shift to the right in popular politics. Leveraging its widespread grassroots network, the BJI has won student union elections in four major public universities.
The main dispute among the new players concerns the timing of the referendum to implement the July National Charter, a blueprint for Bangladesh’s democratic renewal. The BNP wanted a simultaneous election and referendum while the BJI and National Citizen Party demanded the referendum first to protect institutional reforms before a new legislature takes office constitutionally.
Ultimately, the government intervened and decided to hold the election and referendum on the same day. A subsequent presidential ordinance on the implementation of the July National Charter sparked further debate among the parties. Meanwhile, the government also issued the Referendum Ordinance 2025 to pave the way for a referendum on proposed constitutional reforms.
The government that takes office after the February 2026 general election will face immediate economic, geostrategic and environmental challenges.
Despite past resilience, Bangladesh’s economy is suffering from high inflation, necessitating urgent reform to the financial and banking sector. High rates of non-performing loans and poor governance are the main issues. The tax base must be expanded through broad revenue mobilisation reforms to ensure stable governance. And to maintain global competitiveness, Bangladesh has to undertake ambitious reforms, particularly in the garment sector before it loses its least developed country trade preferences.
Dealing with systemic corruption will be essential for recovery. Non-performing loans are largely the result of patronage ties, with control of bank assets held by nominee directors. The new government must ensure that banks are free from political interference, amend the Public Procurement Act to provide for mandatory e-tendering and empower the Bangladesh Competition Commission. Failure could drive away critical foreign direct investment while creating new patronage networks.
In 2026, Bangladesh will have to manage a complex geopolitical environment shaped by India, China and the United States. Dhaka must use foreign connections to attract investment while also exercising strategic autonomy to avoid collapsing under the pressure of any one power bloc. This policy of independence and diversification will be the key to national development and better outcomes.
As a low-lying country, Bangladesh also faces non-traditional security threats resulting from rising sea levels, saltwater intrusion and other climate-related factors. Addressing these threats requires institutionalising climate-resilient planning and increasing investment in adaptation and disaster risk management.
Climate adaptation requires cooperation. Dhaka must seek concessional finance from multilateral climate funds for large-scale projects and engage the domestic private sector in climate-smart infrastructure through public–private partnerships. Bangladesh can also mobilise technology and expertise by working with partners like Japan and the Netherlands for delta management, and with India and China on transboundary river basin management and early warning systems.
While 2026 will be a watershed year for Bangladesh, stability is not assured. The challenge is not so much holding a supposedly credible election, but ensuring the election winners cannot capture the state again. To begin with, the Election Commission must have constitutional protection over its independence and manner of appointment. An independent judiciary and anti-corruption commission must also be vested with the power to investigate the ruling party. The success of the 2026 election will hinge not on who wins, but on whether the vote produces a system capable of surviving its winners.
Dr Pranab Kumar Panday is Professor of Public Administration at the University of Rajshahi, Bangladesh and former adjunct professor at Central Queensland University, Australia.