It’s Election Day 2025. And the results in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere Tuesday could be some of the most significant dominoes to fall in the federal government shutdown, which is set to become the longest in history on Wednesday.
But the election isn’t the only X factor in the monthlong shutdown that’s evolving even as we speak.
Let’s check in on a number of key variables and sources of potential leverage in the shutdown and how they’re playing.
Election Day 2025
The big ones to watch here are the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia.
(The New York City mayor’s race and a redistricting ballot measure in California are fascinating for other reasons, but less instructive when it comes to Republican vs. Democrat power dynamics.)
The blue lean of these two states and the history of these races suggest Democrats should win both gubernatorial races. Generally speaking, the party that just lost the presidential race tends to overperform. This year, that’s Democrats.
If Democrats win each race by comfortable margins — say by double digits — they’ll probably feel pretty good about how they’ve handled the shutdown. A good election night might leave them emboldened to press forward.
Voters cast their ballots at a polling station on the first day of early voting for the mayoral election October 25 in New York’s Brooklyn borough. Angelina Katsanis/Reuters
That could especially be the case if Rep. Abigail Spanberger wins big in Virginia, given it’s home to so many government employees who are feeling the brunt of the shutdown. (The most recent polls suggest Spanberger leads, on average, by around 10 points.)
But Republicans have been optimistic about making it a competitive race in New Jersey, which swung significantly in President Donald Trump’s direction in 2024. If Republican Jack Ciattarelli can keep it close with Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill, Democrats might start second-guessing their shutdown strategy.
Republicans also appear to have real hope of winning the Virginia lieutenant governor’s race and especially the state’s attorney general’s race — though the latter owes mostly to the Democratic candidate’s violent texts.
Obamacare open enrollment
This is the big source of potential leverage for Democrats. But it’s too early to say how it’s playing.
Open enrollment for millions of people who get their health insurance through the Obamacare marketplaces began on Saturday. In other words, that’s when many people began to see their premiums would double next year.
Democrats have been demanding an extension of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies that would prevent those huge premium increases, in exchange for funding the government. And the optimistic case for them is that people seeing these premiums about to rise would ratchet up pressure on Republicans to give in.
Some Republicans, including Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, have warned the GOP about the political cost of not extending the subsidies.
We know that north of 70% of Americans have said they support extending the subsidies. The question for Republicans now is whether they think they might have to extend the subsidies either during or after the shutdown. If they start getting more pressure from their constituents, that could force them to act.
SNAP benefits
These food stamp benefits have been in limbo since Saturday.
The Trump administration signaled Monday that it would provide partial benefits — $4.65 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program’s contingency fund — after a federal judge ordered it to find a solution.
But notably, the administration declined to attempt to provide full benefits, which would cost roughly $9 billion for the month. And it made clear that it wasn’t going to strain too hard on the subject.
Republicans have been clear that they believe these benefits being withheld provides leverage in the shutdown fight.
House Speaker Mike Johnson last week told CNN’s Dana Bash that passing a bill to fully fund SNAP benefits would “reduce the pressure” on Democrats to vote to reopen the government.
So is he right?
Perhaps these benefits not being paid in full and on time does provide leverage — in the sense that no one wants to be blamed for Americans going hungry.
A market in Los Angeles sets up an “EBT Accepted Here” banner on Friday. Damian Dovarganes/AP
But from a partisan standpoint, polls continue to show more Americans blame Republicans than Democrats for the shutdown. And the Republicans’ handling of SNAP in recent days could signal to Americans that it’s they who have stood in the way of a fully funded program.
After all, Johnson was rejecting a push from some in his own party, including Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, to pass legislation.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Monday called the Trump administration’s partial SNAP funding “an intentional decision not to pay full benefits.”
Beyond that, the White House has also risked seeming tone-deaf on the financial pain of the shutdown in recent weeks. Not only has it set about demolishing the East Wing for a ballroom costing hundreds of millions of dollars (which Trump says is privately funded), but the president late last week proudly promoted a renovation of the Lincoln Bedroom bathroom. And on Friday night, Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort played host to a “Great Gatsby”-themed event.
Those are perhaps not the best optics.
Paying the troops
While the administration hasn’t bent over backward on SNAP benefits, it’s taken a more urgent posture toward military paychecks.
For the second time, the administration on Friday found funding to make sure the military paychecks went out.
Trump has made clear that he would like to be perceived as a political ally of the troops. He has repeatedly attacked Democrats in speeches to the military in recent weeks — a highly questionable breach of norms.
“I want you to know that despite the current Democrat-induced shutdown, we will get our service members every last penny,” Trump told members of the Navy last month.
Democrats have expressed warnings about Trump trying to wield the military for political purposes. And at some point, they might worry that enabling him to look like the savior of troops’ paychecks plays into his hands.
Air travel
This is perhaps the biggest X factor right now. But it’s really difficult to evaluate the politics of it.
This weekend marked the worst one for air traffic control staffing shortages since the shutdown began, according to a CNN analysis. And that notably came just days after Federal Aviation Administration employees missed their first full paycheck.
There have now been more than 400 staffing shortages, as of Monday.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, meanwhile, told CNBC on Monday that he would “shut the whole airspace down” if he felt travel was unsafe.
The fact that we are seeing significant slowdown in air travel probably plays somewhat like the SNAP issue — generally applying pressure on lawmakers to come to a resolution but not necessarily providing one side significantly more leverage than the other.
The Thanksgiving travel season could up that pressure, however, as travel delays become more acute.