In Trump’s first week as President of the U.S., his administration has already moved ahead on key campaign talking points, including an escalated crackdown on illegal immigration, threats of tariff imposition on allies, and the intent to withdraw from the World Health Organisation. As the world adjusts to Trump 2.0, a shift in great power politics is likely imminent.
While the Trump administration is more hawkish on China, it appears to view the U.S.-Taiwan relationship as skewed in the latter’s favor. The United States’ move towards investigating its trade deficits and Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on chips and semiconductors could be a challenge for Taiwan as home to the world’s largest chipmaker, TSMC. As uncertainty looms over Taiwan, so does it over the larger Asia-Pacific region.
While India and China have made significant headway in their relationship since the signing of their border patrol agreement in late 2024, the normalization will be tested by their competing zones of influence and a new U.S. foreign policy.
Indian PM Modi shared close ties with Trump during his first term from 2016 to 2020. However, Trump’s recent comments on the BRICS nations could lead to some turbulence.
Primarily, the U.S.’ potential points of contention with India are tariffs, immigration, and defense. India has a trade surplus with the U.S., its largest export market and trading partner. Trump’s inclination towards reciprocal trade could signal trouble for India.
While the Indian government is working with U.S. authorities to repatriate Indians living in the U.S. illegally, a larger crackdown on immigration, including the H-1B visa, could prove to be problematic. Indians accounted for 75% of all H-1B visas given out in 2023, and around 200,000 Indian students are currently enrolled in campuses around the U.S., many hoping to enter the H-1B pipeline.
Trump’s defense strategy—albeit unpredictable—could cause the most trouble in the region by far. The U.S. is pushing India to buy more American-made arms in a bid to rebalance trade and expand security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. A major aspect of these cooperative ties for India will be the upgrade of its military capabilities and a renewed commitment to Quad.
Considering what India must contend with, it will likely leverage its significance in the Indo-Pacific to gain a purchase from Trump. While India has previously displayed reluctance to take on an active role in the Quad for several reasons, not least of which is its desire to maintain strategic autonomy, it is also aware of the repercussions of such an alliance on its already testy relationship with neighbor China.
This hesitation could be amplified by recent developments in the India-China relationship, which has shown rapid signs of normalization since the violent border skirmishes of 2020. However, it appears that the improving relationship has boosted India’s confidence in navigating Trump’s emerging foreign policy doctrine. After all, the two neighbors do share similar concerns, and the intertwined relationships of the three are not an entirely new frontier.