What makes China nervous about the US presidential election on November 5? Beijing is highly worried about the possible victory of former American President and Republican party’s candidate, Donald Trump in the forthcoming election. It is equally concerned about J D Vance, a 39-year-old Senator from Ohio, as he has been picked by Donald Trump as his running mate in the US presidential election.
Senator Vance, as per The Japan Times, represents a hardening of Trump’s “America First” stance and could also help push a tougher line on a more assertive China and support for democratic Taiwan. Hailing from Middletown in Ohio, Vance had earlier introduced legislation to restrict Chinese access to US financial markets and to protect US higher education from Chinese influence.
In an interview with Fox News on July 15, Senator Vance said China is “the biggest threat” to the US. He also said that if elected Trump would negotiate with Russia and Ukraine to “bring this thing to a rapid close so America can focus on the real issue, which is China.” This is what makes Beijing feel uneasy. “We are always opposed to making China an issue in US elections,” China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian said during a regular press briefing on July 16.
Global Times, China’s lone tabloid English paper and mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China, said China bashing has always been a topic of US elections and candidates tend to compete with each other on who is the bigger “China hawk.” Expressing its apprehension on the impact of Senator Vance’s anti-China stances on the tenuous Beijing-Washington DC relations, Global Times further said, “In terms of foreign policy, a tougher stance may be taken by prioritizing national interests…Vance’s views will continue to have a significant impact on future policy discussions and formulation.”
Not unknown to the world, however, China’s economy started tottering after Donald Trump in his first presidential term launched a trade war against Beijing. Between July 2018 and August 2019, the US imposed $250 billion in tariffs on Chinese products. In September 2019, President Trump called out American firms to move production out of China and build more products in the US.
During his presidential term from 2017 to 2021, Trump hammered on China’s toes on almost all issues ranging from trade, technology to Taiwan and the South China Sea. Earlier this year, he vowed to relaunch his tough stand on China to protect American interests. In an interview with CNBC in February, 2024, the former US President and Republican party front runner said if elected, he would impose tariffs of 60% or higher on Chinese goods in his second term.
Trump would be equally maintaining a tough stand against Beijing on its expansionist claims in the Indo-Pacific region. During his first term, Trump had rejected China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea delineated by Beijing under its imaginary nine-dash line. He had also promised to defend the Philippines from any military attack by China over the issue related to the South China Sea.
In fact, under the Mutual Defence Treaty (MDT) signed by the US and the Philippines in 1951, the two countries have a commitment to come to each other’s aid in the event of an attack by an external aggressor. The Joe Biden administration imparted more strength to the US’s partnership with the Philippines. This could be seen in Manila offering the US four new military bases to operate apart from the existing 5 military sites in the Southeast Asian country. Armed forces of the two countries are regularly undertaking joint exercises in the Pacific region.
This year in April-May, more than 16,000 American and Philippines military personnel took part in Balikatan annual military drills in the Philippines’ northernmost island of Itbayat, which is located 156 km from the southernmost tip of Taiwan.
The two countries are, as per the US Department of Defence, currently discussing the conclusion of a General Security of Military Information Agreement which will lead to strengthening of information sharing between militaries of the two countries. Besides, Washington DC and Manila are working together on the modernization of Philippines forces, the US Department of Defence said.
Trump and his pick for vice-presidential post J D Vance have already hinted that their focus will be on the Indo-Pacific region and China, if the victory comes their way post the November 5 election. This means they will continue the Joe Biden-led administration’s approach towards the Indo-Pacific.
Some analysts argue that though Trump in his interview with Bloomberg on June 25 said Taiwan should pay the US for its defence, it does not mean relations between America and the self-ruling island are based on give and take. The US is bound by the law to support Taiwan through means and resources to defend itself, they say.
In all, there are high chances of Trump unsettling China in his second term on the economic front, technology, and the Indo-Pacific. “The prospect of a Trump victory is the subject of debate among China’s elite, too. They fear his return to the White House would lead to an even hotter trade war, with potentially vast economic costs,” The Economist said. However, China is not just fearing the impact of the possible Trump’s victory on the country’s economy, it is also scared of the consequences of the Republican party’s presidential candidate’s victory on its security. “The priorities are to ensure China remains secure from foreign security and military interference, that it is financially and economically secure,” Brian Wong, a fellow at the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World was quoted by CNN as saying.