As US President Donald Trump begins his second term with a softer stance on China, observers believe the policy is still a “work in progress” and India will remain a key Quad partner for Washington as a counterweight to Beijing’s Indo-Pacific influence.
In a historic move, China sent Vice-President Han Zheng to attend Trump’s inauguration last week, a move widely seen as upbeat for US-China relations.
But also on Washington’s radar is the Quad – a security grouping consisting of India, Australia, Japan and the United States, that was formed in 2007 on the initiative of Japan’s then-prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to counter China’s growing influence and support an “open, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific”.
Foreign affairs specialist Robinder Sachdev told This Week in Asia that the US continued to see India as a crucial partner in both the technology race and as a strategic counterbalance to China.
“India remains a vital US partner within the Quad framework. India’s growing influence and strategic positioning in the Indo-Pacific, coupled with its technological potential, ensure that its role remains vital in the evolving global order, irrespective of any temporary trade realignments between Washington and Beijing,” said Sachdev, founder president of The Imagindia Institute, a non-partisan New Delhi-based independent think tank and research centre.
“The significance of the Quad can be gauged by the fact that one of the first official engagements of Secretary of State Marco Rubio, within a day of assuming office, included the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting, and discussions with Indian Foreign Minister [Subrahmanyam] Jaishankar,” Sachdev added.
Jaishankar attended Trump’s oath-taking ceremony alongside other Quad members and later held talks with Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.
Addressing a press conference after the meetings, Jaishankar said the Trump administration was keen “to take the Quad further, to intensify its activities”, while pointing to what he said was a visible chemistry between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump.
Quad nations conducted their first joint coastguard drill at Japan’s Port of Yokohama earlier in January, with India set to host the bloc’s leaders’ summit later in September.
‘Free candy’
While Trump has appeared to soften his stance regarding imposing tariffs on China, analysts told This Week in Asia that such an approach would give way to “reality” as he was unlikely to forfeit his interests.
Trump called Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of his inauguration, later praising the conversation as “a very good call” and saying both leaders “will solve many problems together, and starting immediately”.
Xi echoed the sentiment, expressing “hope for greater progress” in bilateral ties.
“Trump’s outreach to Xi is like a kidnapper offering free candy to get a victim into his car. Soon, reality will become clear,” said Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official.
“Once he figures out where Xi’s red lines truly are, then it’s game on.”
Foreign policy analyst Harsh V. Pant noted that Washington’s China policy remained a “work in progress” for the new Trump administration.
“The only positive thing that has happened is that Trump has reached out to Xi Jinping and had a phone call but other than that everything is very negative,” said Pant, an international-relations professor at King’s College London.
“You have people like Marco Rubio appointed as secretary of state and he is under sanctions from China and his statements are very categorical on Beijing.”
In contrast, India had traditionally been an important partner for the US and analysts predicted the cooperation was likely to grow, continuing from the first Trump administration’s close ties with Delhi.
“The expectation is that this cooperation will continue. For India and the US, China is an important player and the convergence in the Indo-Pacific in the Quad will continue,” Pant said.
Sachdev agreed that the US and India shared a strong convergence of interests when it came to China, and Modi’s relationship with Trump would help ensure India remained a key focus for the US.
“Therefore, rather than being sidelined, India is likely to find itself in a strengthened position within Trump’s strategic calculus,” Sachdev said.
“Warmer ties” between Trump and Modi would also allow the Indian leader to “have ample opportunity to shape Trump’s strategy and thinking”, Rubin said.
Modi and Trump spoke on the phone on Monday, according to social media post by the Indian prime minister – the first conversation between the two since the US president took office last week.
“We are committed to a mutually beneficial and trusted partnership,” Modi said in the post, adding that he also congratulated his “dear friend” on his historic second term in office. “We will work together for the welfare of our people and towards global peace, prosperity, and security.”
Analysts also predicted that US-India ties had room for deeper cooperation that went beyond countering China.
Jon Danilowicz, a retired American diplomat, said economic ties and partnerships in space exploration and emerging technologies were likely to grow and the overall trajectory of US-India relations should remain positive during Trump’s second term.
Richard Rossow, a senior adviser at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said India – a key global player in IT services and some green shoots in manufacturing – was an emerging commercial partner to the US.
“Security ties continue to blossom across multiple administrations in both nations. China is certainly in mind when we think of deepening cooperation, and I suspect some small areas of reduced US-China tensions will not cause a deceleration in US-India ties,” Rossow said.
Nevertheless, competition with China would be the central foreign policy challenge facing the US in 2025, Danilowicz said.
“In his inaugural address, Trump made clear that competition does not have to mean conflict. At the same time, he has so far staffed his administration with a number of senior officials known for their strong beliefs in the importance of the US role in the Indo-Pacific,” he said, adding that this was reinforced by holding the Quad meeting soon after the inauguration.