By combining economic inducements, institutional advocacy and climate leadership into a cohesive strategy, China has positioned itself as both a partner and a leader within the global south, says US academic John Calabrese. As Donald Trump and his “America First” approach return to the world stage, will China’s alternative leadership be more appealing?
China’s strategic focus on the global south has become a cornerstone of its foreign policy under Xi Jinping, reflecting Beijing’s ambition to challenge US dominance and reshape the international order. By positioning itself as both a partner and leader among developing nations, China seeks to amplify its influence in regions traditionally sidelined in global power dynamics.
At the G20 summit in November, Xi introduced new measures aimed at boosting global development while subtly critiquing US policies, reinforcing China’s role as a champion of inclusivity and modernisation for the global south. This dynamic presents both opportunities and challenges for the US, particularly considering Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House, as Washington grapples with the growing influence of China in the global south and the shifting geopolitical landscape.
Decoding the global south
The global south has become a central focus in global politics, representing a collective push for reforming inequitable economic systems, diversifying partnerships and promoting a multipolar world order. The term “global south”, while useful as a geopolitical shorthand, often oversimplifies the diverse nations it encompasses. Countries in this group, from India’s market-driven democracy to China’s state-led model, follow distinct political, economic and developmental paths. This diversity presents both challenges and opportunities for efforts to forge unified strategies or partnerships within the global south.
However, despite the global south being made up of a vast array of disparate nations with distinct political and economic models, China frames its engagement through a unifying vision of shared modernisation and collective progress. Through platforms such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China continues to strengthen its role as a key partner for the global south, distinguishing its approach from that of Western-led efforts.
The concept of the global south, shaped by historical frameworks like the Non-Aligned Movement, reflects a push for systemic reforms and equitable partnerships.
Emerging powers, like South Africa and Brazil, have embraced this platform, advocating for inclusive global governance. South Africa has actively championed this concept through its push for BRICS expansion, emerging as a prominent advocate for more inclusive global governance. Similarly, Brazil has leveraged its leadership in climate negotiations to emphasise the shared interests of developing nations, particularly in advancing equitable solutions to global environmental challenges.
As developing economies contribute significantly to global GDP, China’s strategy to lead within this diverse group highlights its central role in reshaping global dynamics. However, stark disparities remain, as many nations face deep-rooted challenges, illustrating the complex landscape within the global south and its evolving role in global affairs.
Growth potential amid systemic obstacles
Among the rising powers, China’s approach to the global south stands out. China’s influence is strategically directed towards emerging and developing economies, which now account for nearly 60% of global GDP, with rising trade and investment driving growth. India’s technology sector, for example, is projected to reach US$254 billion in FY 2024, reflecting a 3.8% growth. Similarly, Nigeria’s energy sector is expanding, aiming to provide clean energy to 17.5 million people through distributed solutions.
Yet alongside these achievements, stark disparities persist. The 45 least-developed countries (LDCs) still face entrenched poverty and governance challenges. In Zambia, for instance, a productive mining sector fuels GDP and export earnings, yet the ongoing debt crisis underscores the financial vulnerabilities threatening the country’s development.
This dual reality — growth potential amid systemic obstacles — illustrates the complex landscape of the global south. The demand for port infrastructure, crucial for trade-dependent economies, exemplifies both the region’s potential and limitations. This dynamic reflects the global south’s evolving role: as a collective advocate for systemic reforms and a battleground for global powers.
China: both a leader and a member within the global south
In this context, China has emerged as a dominant player, leveraging its economic and political initiatives to shape the global south’s future trajectory. The region, shedding its historically passive role, is now actively engaging in global politics, advocating for institutional reforms and seeking equitable solutions to challenges such as sustainable development, trade imbalances, and climate change. This newfound agency presents significant opportunities for China to influence, and even guide, the global south’s evolving path.
China has strategically positioned itself as both a member of and a leader within the global south. While promoting its state-led development model, China acknowledges the diversity within the global south. This model may not align with the preferences of all nations in the region, some of which may favour Western-style liberal democracies or other governance structures. Understanding these nuances is essential for a comprehensive analysis of China’s engagement with the global south.
Beijing’s self-portrayal as “the largest developing country” is central to its diplomatic strategy. In contrast to Western powers, which often position themselves as development partners, China frames itself as a peer of the global south. Drawing on its historic participation in the 1955 Bandung Conference — where it aligned with anti-colonial movements — it has cultivated enduring relationships across Asia, Africa and Latin America. These ties have been revitalised through contemporary initiatives like the BRI, which echoes China’s longstanding narrative of solidarity.
A decade into the BRI, China’s objectives are clear. Economically, it seeks to secure markets, access resources, and reduce dependence on Western economies. Politically, it aims to reshape global governance, promote multipolarity, and counter the US-led international order. This dual strategy intertwines economic priorities with geopolitical ambitions, solidifying China’s leadership role.
China’s leadership in the global south is evident through its economic engagement and political rhetoric. At global forums like the FOCAC in Beijing and G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro this November, President Xi Jinping has emphasised themes of shared modernisation and collective progress. Xi’s framing of the global south as part of a “community with a shared future” underscores China’s attempt to align its goals with those of developing nations. Initiatives such as the BRI, south-south development funds, and expanded partnerships across Asia, Africa, and Latin America translate this rhetoric into tangible influence, furthering Beijing’s vision.
Fostering ties through trade
Despite its classification as an upper-middle-income country by the World Bank, China positions itself as part of the global south, advocating for systemic reforms to overcome inequalities. This approach contrasts sharply with the historical dominance of Western countries in shaping global economic structures.
This strategic positioning allows China to blend infrastructure investments, development programmes and governance reform advocacy, positioning itself as both a partner and leader. China’s trade with the global south has experienced significant growth, driven by its infrastructure projects and increasing investments.
Recent data shows that China now accounts for approximately 40% of the global south’s trade, with the BRI facilitating over US$1 trillion in infrastructure projects across more than 140 countries over the past decade. Chinese firms have also expanded aggressively into developing markets, establishing factories and targeting the global south’s five billion consumers. This contrasts sharply with Western nations, which have increasingly adopted protectionist measures. As the West retreats, China’s commitment to globalisation has fostered closer ties with the global south, yielding mutual economic benefits.
A cohesive strategy
China’s broader foreign policy framework emphasises development and multilateralism as core principles. This doctrine underpins China’s support for multilateral platforms such as the African Union’s inclusion in the G20 and its backing of BRICS membership expansion. Beijing’s advocacy for greater representation for developing countries reflects its broader critique of Western-dominated institutions and its ambition to “reform the global governance system with fairness and justice”.
China’s leadership extends beyond economic and political domains to climate action, where it has positioned itself as a pioneer in green technology. At platforms such as FOCAC, China has supported Africa’s green industrialisation and promoted principles like “common but differentiated responsibilities” (CBDR) in climate finance. These climate initiatives not only enhance China’s influence but also align with its strategy to provide solutions to global challenges.
By weaving economic inducements, institutional advocacy and climate leadership into a cohesive strategy, China has positioned itself as both a partner and a leader within the global south. While its engagement reflects a vision of shared modernisation, it also consolidates China’s influence and challenges the Western-dominated global order.
US’s challenges with follow-through on aid and multilateral frameworks
As the global south’s economic and political significance rises — driven by intra-regional trade, infrastructure demands and shifts in global governance — China’s central role has raised the stakes of the US-China rivalry. With Donald Trump returning to the White House in January 2025, the US faces a crucial challenge: engaging with global south nations while countering China’s expanding influence, particularly in areas that align with these countries’ growing needs.
China has solidified its presence in the global south through large-scale infrastructure investments, such as the construction of ports, railways and highways in Africa and Asia, often as part of its BRI projects. These initiatives position China as a key development partner.
However, accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy” — exemplified by Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port deal — and concerns over the environmental and economic impacts of Chinese projects have caused setbacks. For instance, Malaysia cancelled two major Chinese infrastructure projects in 2018, citing unsustainable costs and fears of national bankruptcy. Similarly, in Myanmar, the Kachin Independence Army’s capture of the Kanpaiti trade hub disrupted Chinese investments, showcasing vulnerabilities in volatile regions. These challenges could undermine China’s long-term influence across the global south.
As China’s investments face increasing scrutiny, the US must navigate its own complex relationship with the global south. Trump’s “America First” policies and transactional approach to foreign relations could reshape US engagement. While short-term, pragmatic deals may appeal to some leaders, they risk reinforcing perceptions of the US as an unreliable partner, particularly in nations seeking stable, long-term alliances. This focus on immediate benefits could also undercut strategic goals like sustainable development and green technologies, areas where China has positioned itself as a more consistent partner, especially through the BRI.
In contrast to the US’s challenges with follow-through on aid and multilateral frameworks, China has capitalised on these gaps, offering steady support in infrastructure development. Past US missteps — such as failing to rival China’s infrastructure investments and focusing on criticism without viable alternatives — have eroded trust in Washington’s commitment to equitable partnerships, leaving China to further entrench its influence.
Beijing’s emphasis on multilateralism, non-interference and shared development resonates strongly with many nations, particularly those seeking alternatives to Western-dominated global structures. This narrative of shared modernisation positions China as both a partner and leader in the global south.
US’s selective partnership
Moreover, if the Trump administration were to favour relationships with strategically significant nations — such as India and Brazil — this approach could strengthen ties with emerging global players but may also leave broader, multilateral efforts weakened.
Finally, the US’s selective application of democratic values and human rights has undermined its credibility in the global south. Perceived inconsistencies and a failure to engage with the pressing needs of developing nations have allowed China to present itself as a more reliable and attentive ally. If, under the Trump administration, the US fails to address the growing disillusionment in the global south, it risks deepening the divide and enabling China’s continued rise.
The intensifying rivalry between the US and China in the global south will have far-reaching consequences for global power dynamics. While Donald Trump’s return to the presidency may recalibrate US policy toward a more transactional, short-term approach, China’s established presence across Africa, Asia and Latin America positions it to further consolidate its leadership.
he US will need to navigate this complex landscape carefully, balancing its immediate strategic interests with long-term commitments to global governance, development and multilateral cooperation. The outcome of this competition will not only shape the future of the global south but also redefine the contours of US-China rivalry in the 21st century.