India’s relationship with the Maldives is facing turbulence amid geopolitical shifts and strategic maneuvers, including the recent deployment of Turkish drones in the region. The dynamics underscore the critical need for a recalibrated foreign policy approach that aligns with India’s maritime interests and regional stability.
With every passing moment, Maldives is losing its land inch by inch due to global warming. Similarly, our relationship with the Maldives is also being eroded, partly due to the heat our current foreign policy misadventures have generated.
India and Maldives have had a long-standing relationship characterised by close cultural, historical and economic ties. India was one of the first countries to establish diplomatic relations with Maldives after it gained independence in 1965. A few years ago, in 1988, a group of armed mercenaries attempted to overthrow President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom in the Maldives. In response to this threat, India took action by deploying paratroopers and Navy vessels to restore the rightful leadership of the Maldives under a mission called Operation Cactus. However, Maldives is now openly ordering the removal of Indian military officers who are deployed there for their assistance, training,internal and external security.
Maldives’s attitude and approach is not good news for our maritime interests. Given its strategic position in the Indian Ocean, it serves as a crucial toll gate for maritime trade. It sits at the southern and northern points of the island chain, encompassing two significant sea lanes of communication (SLOCs). These SLOCs play a critical role in facilitating trade between the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Hormuz in West Asia, as well as the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia. Considering the Indian Ocean’s status as a major global trade and energy route, the SLOCs near the Maldives hold immense strategic importance. In the Indian context, almost half of its external trade and 80% of its energy imports pass through these westward SLOCs in the Arabian Sea.
Despite all of this, there have been some strains in relations between India-Maldives in recent times. In 2018, the Maldivian government under President Abdulla Yameen pursued policies that were seen as leaning towards China, a rapidly growing threat in the Indian Ocean.
Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) is India’s policy or doctrine of maritime cooperation in the Indian Ocean region, the policy announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on March 12, 2015. Modi is known for its fancy acronyms; unfortunately, SAGAR, too, remains a fancy press release and part of speeches at an event or two. Our vague and wavering foreign policy could never provide support for it. After Sri Lanka, Maldives becomes the next Chinese wrest from the Indian Ocean.
The recent deployment of Turkish drones in the Indian Ocean by Maldives is seen as another military move amid tensions with India. Media sources state that Turkey has deployed drones in the Maldives for maritime surveillance and this move is seen as a potential concern for India, as it could impact the security dynamics in the region.
Another report states that Turkey, with a foreign and economic policy pivoting to China, has been expanding its military influence in the Indian Ocean region and this deployment is seen as a part of its broader strategy. It concludes by stating that this development comes amid the backdrop of the Maldives asking India to withdraw its military personnel from the country; the Maldives had earlier asked India to remove its two military helicopters stationed there too. Recently, in a major setback, India’s ties with the Maldives appeared to have taken another hit as Male effectively declared that it would allow a dual-use “spy” Chinese vessel, Xiang Yang Hong 03, to make a port call, regardless of New Delhi’s concerns about the vessel’s research activities in vicinity of Great Indian Ocean.
The Modi government must prioritise effective foreign policy over catchy acronyms. They should devise a new plan or adhere to previous Congress governments’ successful foreign policy and strategies. In today’s world, social media holds a significant influence on geopolitics. Regrettably, the current Modi government tends to sideline our foreign policy on social platforms, driven by their vote bank interests, and The writing is on the wall.