The run up to the National Assembly election Bhutan has not carried any encouraging news for Beijing. With the media in China cheering over the fond hope of the Bhutan government stepping up its engagements with Beijing, India will be keenly watching the results of the ongoing National Assembly election in the Himalayan kingdom. But, the result of the primary round of the two-stage process of election in Bhutan is rather encouraging for New Delhi and to the detriment of Beijing.
In the primary round of the poll, the People’s Democratic Party led by former Prime Minister of Bhutan Tshering Tobgay has won a resounding majority. PDP secured 39 out of the 48 seats in the primary round election, polling 42.5 percent of the total votes cast. This will give the PDP an advantage over rival Bhutan Tendrel Party with which it will be locked in a direct contest in the final round of the election. BTP has secured 19.6 percent of the total votes cast in the primary round, winning four constituencies.
The clear stand of the PDP on improving relations with India is reinforced by the experience during the five years of its rule from 2013 to 2018; the most notable of which was the military standoff with China over the Doklam issue in 2017. On that occasion, the Indian army entered the Doklam plateau in Bhutan at the request of Thimphu to prevent the Chinese army from extending to Zompelhri Ridge a road that they have been building along the Torsa Nullah for the past many years . Zompelhri Ridge is a high ground on the Doklam plateau; overlooking the vulnerable Siliguri Corridor of India. Thimphu had sought military assistance from India as a post of the Royal Bhutan Army located on Zompelhri Ridge ran the risk of being overrun by the Chinese army. In the process, the Indian army had thwarted an attempt by the Chinese army to gain strategic heights in Bhutan to endanger the security of India.
What is notable is that the election manifestos of four of the five parties contesting in the primary round of the National Assembly elections in Bhutan have adopted a visibly pro-India approach through their various declared programmes. Among them are the PDP, which was in power in Bhutan from 2013 to 2018, the Druk Phuensum Tshogpa (DPT), the first party to run the government in the Himalayan kingdom from 2008 to 2013, since Bhutan adopting a parliamentary system of democracy; and also the Bhutan Tendrel Party (BTP), which ran second in the recently concluded primary round of election in Bhutan.
The Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) was in the regime from 2018 to 2023, during which China was trying to push its agenda on the Bhutan – China border. DNT is already out of the race in the final round, having lost out the race in the primary round. In the process of two-stage election in Bhutan, only two parties proceed from the primary to the final round; the winner and the runner-up in the first round. This system has been introduced to preclude the proliferation of political parties in the National Assembly election.
The decision of the DNT government to impose a tourism levy called Sustainable Development Fee on Indian tourists at the rate of Rs 1,200 per person per day is standing in the way of Indian tourists visiting Bhutan and is a hindrance on the way of developing a closer relationship between India and Bhutan. For international tourists, the existing SDF levy of $65 per person per day, has been raised in 2022 to $200. The levies were imposed during the reopening of tourism in the Himalayan kingdom post-Covid, in August 2022. As the poll manifestos of the five political parties in Bhutan show, the SDF is playing a critical role in the current process of election in Bhutan. Barring the DNT, the architects of the new tourism policy of Bhutan in 2022, all other political parties in the fray are in favour of a thorough review of the SDF, which has hit hoteliers and taxi operators in Bhutan because of the dwindling number of tourists to the last Shangri-la.
Two of the main contestants (PDP and BTP) which have been earlier in power in Bhutan have shown keen interest in deepening relations with India. The People’s Democratic Party which ran the government in Bhutan from 2013 to 2018 has promised to review the tourism policy, including the SDF levy. It wants to remove barriers in the way of growth and development of the tourism sector and the participation of different stakeholders in the sector.
The PDP has also promised that the SDF regulations will be reviewed to allow tourists from the southern border towns in India to visit the border towns of Bhutan without the need to pay any SDF. The PDP has also promised to do away with the system of collection of Nu 10 from Bhutanese people entering the country at Phuentsholing gateway. This last resolution will help shopkeepers in Jaigaon where many customers from the border town of Phuentsholing in Bhutan come to buy their daily needs. This levy, especially the time spent at the gate between Jaigaon and Phuentsholing to pay the amount, has been discouraging the Bhutanese people from visiting Jaigaon.
The PDP has announced a host of measures to open up the southern borders of the Himalayan kingdom with India to facilitate trade and tourism and set up a string of airports on the southern border. It also wants to use waterways with India through the southern border and liaise with the West Bengal government to streamline and ease the transport of goods from Bhutan through the seaport of Kolkata.
With communication, trade and commerce growing between India and Bhutan, it will not be necessary for Thimphu to join the controversial Belt and Road Initiative of China, say analysts. People of Bhutan realize that BRI will land their Shangri-la in a debt trap and deprive them of their Gross National Happiness which they want to maximize.
The BTP which is in the contest in the final round of the election as the second party; in its manifesto has promised to examine the SDF and provide an exemption or offer concession to the levy, introduce preferential SDF for tourists from SAARC countries, remove SDF on tourists from India at the border towns and allow tourist entry and exit from all the border gates. All these measures will help deepen people-to-people relationships between Bhutan and India, say analysts.
The BTP also wants to establish railway links to border towns and cooperate with neighbouring countries to initiate cross-border electricity grids. These measures obviously refer to India, the southern neighbour of Bhutan; and not its northern neighbour China where the border between the two countries run through high altitude and often inaccessible mountain ranges.
The Druk PhuensumTshogpa which was in power in Bhutan from 2008 to 2013 in its manifesto has promised to review the SDF policy to revive and boost the tourism industry and make tourism to Bhutan more affordable for visitors. It also wants to amend the Tourism Act of 2022 to make it more encompassing and comprehensive and arrange fiscal incentives for tour operators and hotels.
It will not please Beijing that the DPT in its manifesto has mentioned India by name and said: “Throughout our foreign policy initiatives, our party will prioritize strengthening our connections with the people and the Government of India and maintaining friendly relations with our neighbouring nations.” The controlled media in China has been claiming lately that Beijing has lately achieved a dramatic breakthrough in its border talks with Thimphu and will soon settle the boundary between the two countries, which will help it to achieve strategic heights in Bhutan and from there mount military pressure on India.
The outgoing DNT, however, plans to continue with the present policy of strengthening the border security, building physical barriers such as fences and walls, and also deploy drones and cameras to monitor borders to prevent “illegal crossings of the border and to track down criminals.” It also wants to deploy more border security personnel. But the DNT is already out of contention in the preliminary round.
Whatever the stands of different political parties are, however, Bhutan continues to be a constitutional monarchy; with the King enjoying overriding powers and commanding deep respect of the common people of Bhutan. The fifth and the reigning king of Bhutan Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuk has already given his assurance that Bhutan will not take any step which will affect the vital interests of India. In 2023, he visited New Delhi twice, once in April and then in November, met Prime Minister Narendra Modi; and assured that India has nothing to worry about the ongoing talks between Thimphu and Beijing to settle the boundary issues between Bhutan and China. Thus, the hope of China to gain strategic grounds in Bhutan, to put India under pressure is destined to be dashed, say analysts. The hope of Beijing to establish diplomatic relations with Bhutan or putting pressure on Thimphu to join the Belt and Road Initiative of China are also a far cry.