Myanmar based Institute for Strategy and Policy (ISP) conducted a survey in July 2022 to gauge the perceptions of Myanmarese policy communities about relationship with China at a time when the military Junta is becoming increasingly authoritarian and suppressive by using state power against its own people, especially democratic activists and protesters against the excesses of the military regime.
The focus of survey on Myanmar-China relation becomes important for two reasons. First to gauge whether Myanmarese people who have concern about policies believe that China would be instrumental in restoration of peace and democracy in the country or make bonhomie with the military Junta for its larger strategic goals and economic benefits in the region. Second, to gauge their perception about utility and effectiveness of China’s development model and projects like CMEC.
The views of Myanmar policy communities on Myanmar-China relations were compiled on 70 questions on eight sectors and vary on various scales. It is the biggest and most comprehensive survey of its kind to date. The survey conducted through Zoom and Google forms by the ISP included MPs from 47 political parties from Kachin, Shan (North), Mandalay Region, Magway Region and Rakhine State where the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor projects are being implemented. The participants in survey also included business communities and famous personalities from various fields.
The survey conveyed a lot of negative sentiments about China and its moves in Myanmar. Around 55% of respondents said that they do not see China as a good neighbour while 40% of respondents opined that China is not a good neighbour. The people of Myanmar, as it comes out from survey, doubt China’s capability to expedite peace process in the country. Only 14% believed that China is capable of the same while 67% disapproved China’s interference in Myanmar’s political process. 79% of the people perceived that China advocates dictatorship in the country.
According to the survey, the suspicion that China backed the military coup in February 2021 against Myanmar’s elected government runs deep among Burmese people who are resisting dictatorship of the military Junta. 55% of Myanmarese view China as supporting Myanmar to become an authoritarian state.
China’s silence on the military takeover is widely perceived in the country as support for dictatorship. The Myanmar Junta recently executed four prisoners including Phyo Zeya Thaw and Kyan Min Yun who were popular resistant figures, known respectively for critical lyrics against military dictatorship and pro-democracy activists.
The respondents also noted China’s economic dominance and geopolitical dominance as a major challenge. On a question that China’s main interest in relations with Myanmar was to acquire geopolitical dominance in the Indian Ocean, 46% respondents gave their ascent.
Furthermore, 47% Myanmarese do not believe in China’s economic model and 87% are of the view that democracy with Chinese characteristics is not suitable for Myanmar. In a surprising note 30% respondents held that they do not trust in China’s Covid vaccines.
China in the past has a track record of hobnobbing with authoritarian regimes without any concern for people. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), which aims to bind the Myanmar and Chinese economies more closely with projects involving transportation, industry, finance and communication, was developed with the deposed, elected government but the coup has changed the paradigm. Astounding 83% respondents think that CMEC will benefit only China and it will not have any positive effect on Myanmar.
China’s silence on framing and jailing Aung San Suu Kyi is also being seen as an act of betrayal as she had expedited Chinese projects in the country and showed willingness to further cooperation. On 15th August, Myanmar Junta Court jailed Aung San Suu Kyi for six years on allegations of corruption, which the European Union (EU) denounced as unjust. China, on the other hand, never castigated Myanmar Junta’s continued brutality against civilians and political opponents. People of Myanmar, given China’s long record of bonhomie with the military regime expected some kind of positive intervention, but Beijing disappointed.
China has stepped up open support for the Myanmar junta because it believes it can no longer even afford to appear to take a neutral stance when another authoritarian regime is involved. Because it has decided it can most effectively protect its investments by trying to help the junta win the country’s civil war. China’s lack of support for Aung San Suu Kyi while she is increasingly being sidelined is detrimental to the cause of democracy. But China inherently believes that any democratic government in Myanmar would not be as sensitive for its strategic agenda.
Beijing is likely to maintain its tacit acceptance of the generals’ regime not only to protect its investments in Myanmar, but also to exploit its vulnerability to realize its strategic agenda. Although people of Myanmar want democracy to be restored, neither military Junta nor China was comfortable with this. A Japanese video-journalist was detained in Myanmar while covering a brief pro-democracy march and charged for spreading false and alarming news. In the survey, very few people (15%) agreed that China wants democracy in Myanmar.
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