As India continues its scuffle at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China, the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan has not seen any dip in ceasefire violations intensity this year, raising the threat of two active military fronts at the same time.
In May alone, there have been 382 ceasefire violations (CFVs) recorded on the LoC and 302 in June so far, rising sharply from 221 and 181 CFVs recorded during these months last year. Along with those statistics, security forces have killed 41 militants in the month of June itself.
Official data shows that there have been 2215 CFVs recorded on the LoC till June 25 this year. A total of 3168 CFVs were recorded in 2019, and 1629 in 2018.
This sudden spike in CFVs can be attributed to the government’s decision last August to abrogate Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), and carve out J&K and Ladakh as two separate Union Territories.
An official said: “On the LoC, the number of CFVs had gone up last year and has remained high since. It is unlikely that it will come down anytime soon. The Pakistan army is keen on sending militants across as its aim is to make this summer in Kashmir ‘hot’. We are responding in good measure to its actions on the LoC.”
Earlier, Lt General BS Raju, Chinar Corps Commander, spoke on the same lines: “There is only one reason for the near constant ceasefire violation: Pakistan’s attempt to assist more terrorists to infiltrate into India in order to disrupt normalcy in the Kashmir valley. Pakistan Army facilitates these infiltration attempts.”
Besides manning the LoC in J&K to prevent infiltration, security forces have also increased the tempo of counter-militancy operations in the hinterland during the summer. However, ban on mobile telephony and internet have severely affected intelligence-based operations in the valley.
As per official data, of the 119 militants killed in Kashmir Valley till June 25 this year, 41 were killed in June only. A total of 158 militants were killed in 2019, down from 254 in 2018 and 213 in 2017.
Member of the National Security Advisory Board, Lt General (retd) Subrata Saha said, “The security forces in Kashmir have been additionally proactive, given the tense situation on the Line of Actual Control against China, it is a good strategy to keep the terrorists on the run.”
“Because of the pressure in the hinterland, the handlers in Pakistan are trying to heat up the LoC to divert attention of the Army. It is also trying to push infiltration to make up for the denuding numbers of terrorists,” Lt General Saha said.
Military officers, however, warn that while the Army is currently deployed on both the active borders – with China and Pakistan – it should not be seen as a two-front war.
On May 15, Army Chief General MM Naravane said that the two-front war “is a possibility. It is not that it is going to happen every time. We have to be alive to all contingencies which can happen, various scenarios that can unfold. We have to remain alive to the possibility.”
“But to assume that in all cases both fronts would be 100 per cent active, I think that would be an incorrect assumption to make. In dealing with the two-front scenario, there will always be a priority front and a secondary front. That is how we look at dealing with this two-front threat,” he had said, underlining that the priority front would be addressed in a different manner while the secondary front will be kept as dormant as possible just to conserve resources to focus on the priority front.
“We should not look at a two-front scenario just as a military responsibility. A country does not go to war with its armed forces alone. It has other pillars like diplomatic corps and other organs of government which will come into play to make sure that we are not forced into a corner,” the Army Chief had said.